Last minute thoughts and predicting the final outcome

One of the best things about the Detroit Lions being 9-1 and in first place is how good it makes Sunday morning coffee taste. There’s just something a little smoother and richer about first place coffee. I can get used to this.

Today’s is also nice because it’s the last of the Sunday brews before a kickoff at 13 in a month. The Lions play at 1 ET in Indianapolis today, but then it’s Thanksgiving with the Bears coming to Ford Field, then a Thursday night game with Green Bay and then a late afternoon Sunday kickoff against the Bills.

The Lions are favored by a touchdown on the road against the Colts, but this is dangerous. The recent defensive injuries that continue to wreak havoc on the Lions could be a bigger problem against the Colts than other recent foes.

Here’s what I think about today’s game a few hours before kickoff.

Why I think the Lions will win

This is a game where Detroit’s investment in the offensive line and running back duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery should really pay off. The Lions have one of the best rushing attacks in the league, and it’s consistent. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson isn’t losing patience in the run, either. Not that he would need it in this…

And that’s because the Colts are losing patience on the run defense. They are a team that can get some good stops, but then give up a number of big runs. Only the Texans have allowed more runs of 10-plus yards over the past four weeks than the Colts, and it was the Lions who helped push the Texans to the bottom by continuing to run the ball even when trailing. Sonic and Knuckles can do it again if needed.

The Colts also don’t defend the pass very effectively, especially against accurate QBs. Jared Goff should at least be able to match his 73 percent completion percentage against a Colts secondary that will make plays on the ball instead of a coverage closer before the throw. With how well Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Tim Patrick get open and present as targets, the Lions should be able to move the ball quite effectively.

Converting those yards into points hasn’t been much of a problem lately. Detroit has been great in the red zone nearly all season, ranking fourth in TD percentage. The one misstep was the Week 2 loss to the Buccaneers, when the Lions went 1-of-7 in the red zone. The Colts defense is middle of the pack in red zone defense. On the flip side, Detroit’s defense is third in the red zone. The Lions are great when it really counts and the Colts can’t match that. Gibbs and Jameson Williams’ ability to score well outside the red zone certainly helps as well.

This matchup presents something of a trap game for Detroit. Head coach Dan Campbell and his staff have done a fantastic job of not falling into those traps. One of the hallmarks of the resurgent Lions under Campbell over the last two years is that they make the opposition rise to their level of play, rather than being lulled into falling to the level of the inferior opponent. That’s a great mindset to avoid the upset, even on the road against a team like the Colts that presents some challenges.

What worries me about the Colts

The Colts are a tough foe with Anthony Richardson at the helm because convention goes out the window. Richardson aggressively seeks big plays and has the athleticism to pull them off. He also has decent weapons. Alec Pierce leads the league in yards per carry. reception with over 22 per catch, while Josh Downs and Michael Pittman are both safe and skillful after the catch. That’s more of a concern this week because the Lions will be without Terrion Arnold while Carlton Davis is playing with a broken thumb. It’s not a good week for the Lions to be shorthanded at cornerback.

Indy’s offense with Richardson goes for the big plays. Also, they aren’t really deterred if they don’t beat them early. They put a lot of pressure on opposing defenses to play much more of the field than is required most weeks. Even without starting tackle Bernhard Raimann, the Colts should still be able to run the ball with Jonathan Taylor and Trey Sermon, plus Richardson’s wild size and quickness to hold the ball. This is not a great week for the Lions to be shorthanded at linebacker with Alex Anzalone and Jalen Reeves-Maybin, the team’s two fastest LBs, out with injuries.

On defense, the Colts are very good at creating takeaways. That’s a focus for coordinator Gus Bradley, and they’re relentless about it. They are also a defense without any dominant pass rusher to focus on. Kwity Paye and rookie Laiatu Latu are their top rushers, but they have a lot of guys who can often win pass rush reps. Grover Stewart is the best interior lineman you never hear about, but he’s not alone out there. Don’t be fooled by the lack of big pressure or sack numbers; they can impact Goff and score wins against Detroit’s very good offensive line.

Going back to the Lions and forcing the opposition to get to their level – that’s something the Colts do pretty well. Every Indianapolis game is close. They haven’t figured out how to win them all that well, but the Colts have only had one game decided by more than one score. They know how to consistently hang around with better teams. That makes them dangerous, especially for a Lions defense that will be missing half of its Week 1 starters.

Prediction of final result

I have a feeling the Colts will make this a tighter game than many fans expect. They’re going to make some big plays that the Lions defense typically doesn’t give up. I also have a feeling the Lions offense will be able to hit one or two more of the big plays than the Colts can. It should be a fun game, but maybe a nerve wracking game.

Lions 33, Colts 27