Putin, long-range missiles, Ukraine and why WWIII is being talked about

On November 22, 2024By Littum

Some of us have talked about the possibility of World War III.

And “some of us” in this context primarily means political figures who have used the dark, saber-rattling language amid a potential shift in US policy toward Russia and Ukraine and on the war between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah.

In recent days, there have also been some real changes in President Joe Biden’s Ukraine policy, reinforcing the long-standing discussions of another world war. But here’s why it’s WWIII now.

Trump and his allies keep mentioning it. Biden too, though less often

During his first term as president, US and foreign officials and political scientists expressed private and public concerns that Trump, then viewed as an inexperienced and mercurial leader, would inadvertently start World War 3 – with Iran, China, North Korea or a other American. adversary that is either nuclear-armed or soon to be.

On the campaign trail, and since his election victory, it has been Trump and his allies which has sometimes played fast and loose in conjuring the specter of WWIII by using such language.

“It truly breaks my heart to watch Crooked Joe — the weakest and most incompetent president in history — destroy our country as he pushes the United States to the brink of World War III,” Trump said in a recent fundraising email.

Trump has signaled that he wants Ukraine and Russia to start peace talks. Indeed, he has said he will end the war in Ukraine “in a day,” though he has not specified how and neither Russia nor Ukraine has committed to negotiations.

Biden has also used the term.

“We are trying to avoid World War III,” he said last year, referring to the war in Ukraine.

Biden to Ukraine: You can attack Russia now with long-range missiles

Still, much of the heightened World War III rhetoric in recent days can be attributed to specific moves by the Biden administration. Ukrainian officials have pleaded with the White House for months to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied long-range ballistic missiles, known as ATACMS, to attack Russia.

Biden officials feared that allowing Ukraine to use these weapons risked further entrenching the United States in the war, or, perhaps worse, prompting a devastating strike by Russia against Ukraine with a nuclear weapon.

After Biden approved their use over the weekend, Donald Trump Jr., the president-elect’s son, wrote X: “The Military Industrial Complex seems to want to make sure they start World War 3 before my father has a chance to make peace and save lives. I need to lock up those trillions of $. Life be damn!!! Imbecile!”

Rep. Michael Waltz, R-Fla., Trump’s incoming national security adviser, said on Fox News: “This is another step up the ladder of escalation, and nobody knows where it’s going.”

The Kremlin: the saber-rattle of the nuclear saber-rattle

Russian President Vladimir Putin never misses an opportunity to make provocative statements and take well-timed actions that raise the blood pressure of officials in Western capitals.

How much propaganda or bluster or disinformation is hard to say for sure.

But in the wake of Biden’s authorization of long-range missiles and moves by governments in Britain and France to allow Ukraine to use similar weapons made by those nations, Russia announced it was fine-tuning its nuclear doctrine.

Now, Moscow announced that it would consider aggression by any non-nuclear state – in other words, Ukraine – but with the participation of a nuclear country – read the United States – as a joint attack on Russia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the changes mean Russia “reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression using conventional weapons against it and/or the Republic of Belarus.”

Ukraine used these long-range missiles on Tuesday. A day later, in response, Russia launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile at a target in Ukraine. The missile Russia fired at Ukraine was a rare, experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile, according to a US official.

Russia may have launched it to intimidate Ukraine and its supporters, according to the official, who was not authorized to speak publicly. However, the weapon is not considered to be decisive for Russia’s war aims. US officials briefed Ukraine and close allies before the launch to help them prepare.

On Thursday, Putin gave a national address and said the conflict had taken on elements of a “global nature”.

As one reporter once wrote, “Surely even Vladimir Putin—destructive, isolated, determined to restore his version of Russia’s greatness—wouldn’t use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, would he?”

The short answer is, like so many things with Putin, we don’t know—probably not. More on that here.

Starring: Tom Vanden Brook