What is an ICBM and how many does Russia have?

As Ukraine deals with a suspected intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) attack on the city of Dnipro, the West has been quick to downplay the use of the long-range and hard-to-detect warheads over fears it could escalate the conflict.

If the Ukrainian Air Force is correct, the attack on Dnipro would be the first known use in the war of weapons designed to evade defenses and carry out nuclear strikes thousands of kilometers away.

Here we take a look at the highly experimental weapons and how many Russia potentially has at its disposal.

What are ICBMs?

Intercontinental ballistic missiles are strategic weapons designed to deliver nuclear warheads at long range and are a key part of Russia’s nuclear deterrent.

ICBMs have a range of more than 3,400 miles.

Although the range of an ICBM seems excessive for use against Ukraine, such missiles are designed to carry multiple nuclear warheads — a reminder of Russia’s nuclear capabilities amid fears of a potential escalation.

Although defense systems such as the Patriot have proven effective against advanced missiles, they are not designed to counter ICBM threats.

How many ICBMs does Russia have?

According to an Arms Control Center report published in 2022, Russia is estimated to have around 306 strategic ICBMs that can collectively carry up to 1,185 nuclear warheads.

These include the SS-27 Mod 1 (Topol-M) and the SS-27 Mod 2 (Yars), both capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads.

In addition, Russia is reportedly developing the Sarmat (SS-X-30) missile, which is advertised as larger and more capable than previous designs.

Alongside the Sarmat, Russia is also said to be developing a hypersonic glider known as the Avangard.

During the Cold War, the Russians developed hundreds of ICBMs named Satan, Stiletto, and Sickle.

Since Putin came to power in 2000, the Kremlin has worked to upgrade the Soviet-built components of the triad, deploying hundreds of new land-based missiles, commissioning new nuclear submarines and modernizing nuclear-capable bombers.

Russia is said to have rearmed its land-based strategic missile forces with mobile Yars ICBMs and recently began fielding the heavy, silo-based Sarmat ICBMs – branded “Satan II” missiles in the West – to gradually replace about 40 Soviet-built R-36M missiles.

Sarmat has only had one known successful test and was reportedly hit by a massive explosion during a failed test last month.

‘The ICBM launched by Russia was an RS-26 Rubezh’

A Russian intercontinental ballistic missile that Ukraine says was fired at the city of Dnipro on Thursday was an RS-26 Rubezh, Ukraine’s Ukrainska Pravda media reported, citing anonymous sources.

Although Ukraine’s air force, which stated that Russia had fired an ICBM at Dnipro, did not specify the type of missile. It said an intercontinental ballistic missile was fired at Dnipro city along with eight other missiles and that the Ukrainian military shot down six of them.

Two people were injured as a result of the attack, and an industrial plant and a rehabilitation center for people with disabilities were damaged, according to local officials.

What is an RS-26 Rubezh?

According to the Arms Control Association, the RS-26 has a range of 5,800 km and can reach supersonic speeds of around 4,000 mph.

The speed makes it extremely difficult to intercept for existing missile defense systems.

The RS-26 Rubezh is designed to carry a warhead weighing up to 1,200 kg, a payload equivalent to three Iskander missiles combined.

However, unlike the laser-guided Iskander missiles, the RS-26 Rubezh is relatively untested, increasing the likelihood of inaccurate strikes and collateral damage to civilians.

Are ICBMs legal?

The development of the RS-26 violates the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which banned missiles with ranges greater than 500 and less than 5,000 km.

But the treaty collapsed in 2019 after alleged violations by both Russia and the United States, which removed restrictions on the use of ICBMs.