First Call Snowfall forecast for Thursday night through Friday’s significant winter storm in Pennsylvania

The first East Coast winter storm of the season will be a Pennsylvania Special, with significant snowfall now expected in the Poconos and Laurel Highlands. Model trends over the past 24 hours have been bullish for snow accumulation even in the valleys.

An upper level low pressure responsible for generating the cold air and precipitation needed for this storm will spin back in from the coast and push over Binghamton, then eastern PA before heading out to sea again. Areas closest to the depression will experience the greatest impacts, with the exception of the Alleghenies.

Timing of winter storm

Rain will change to snow around noon Thursday in the highest elevations of northeastern PA. But the transition will happen quickly and will spread to the valleys late Thursday evening.

With the low pressure trending southwest, snow is now also expected to fall in parts of central and western PA by 9:00 PM Thursday night. Below is the Hi-Res NAM model for Thursday at 21.00.

Moderate to locally heavy snow is expected to continue across northern Pennsylvania into the early morning hours Friday. The biggest snowfalls are expected to be in the Endless Mountains and Poconos.

Temperatures in locations below 1500′ elevation are modeled to remain just above freezing for the duration of this storm. As a result, it will take longer to collect snow on roads, especially in the valleys of northern PA.

That said, the Friday morning commute is likely to be messy anywhere north of I-80, with roads likely to be impassable above 1500′ elevation. Here is the Hi-Res NAM future radar at 4:00 Friday.

Now this is where things get a little more questionable. The latest model guidance has moved bands of snow south, all the way into southern Pennsylvania by mid-Friday morning. With temperatures a few degrees above freezing there, this would be more aesthetic snow on grass rather than impactful snow on roads.

An inch or two of snow is possible, especially on the ridges of southern PA. However, our concentration remains on the Alleghenies and northern PA mountains due to the significant hazards. Below is future radar at 9:00 a.m. Friday morning.

The snow will taper off and/or change to rain Friday afternoon, with the exception of the Laurel Highlands, where upward snow will continue through noon Friday.

FIRST CALL SNOWFALL PROGRAM FOR THURSDAY EVENING – FRIDAY

Area A: Expected snowfall of 8 – 12″. Roads will be impassable Friday morning, causing work and school closures. Isolated power outages are possible due to heavy snow and wind gusts up to 30 mph.

Area B: Expected snowfall of 5 – 8″. Road conditions will be very dangerous Friday morning, which will likely cause work and school closures. Isolated power outages are possible.

Area C: Expected snowfall of 3 – 5″. Roadways are likely to become snow-covered in the higher elevations and slushy in the valleys. Work and school delays or cancellations possible.

Area D: Expected snowfall of 1 – 3″. Roadways should remain mostly wet, with untreated surfaces possibly becoming slushy if heavy snow falls.

Area E: Snowfall accumulation between a track to 1″ is expected on grassy surfaces only, after finally changing to snow for a period Friday morning.

Area F: Rain is expected from start to finish.

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