NFL Week 11 Picks, Odds, Betting

The Chiefs and Bills renew their annual rivalry when they meet in Buffalo on Sunday afternoon.

Kansas City remains the only undefeated team at 9-0, and this will likely be the last time in the regular season that the Chiefs will find themselves in an underdog role.

While coaches tend to have second thoughts about approaching an undefeated campaign, there is some thinking that you are better off losing during the regular season than having your first loss come in the playoffs.

As a result, this game may be less important to the Chiefs in the grand scheme of things.

In this preview, we’ll revisit the matchups in this series and examine why Bills quarterback Josh Allen tends to save his best performances for these big games.

Here are my Bills vs Chiefs best bets.

Chiefs vs. Bill’s odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
chiefs	+2 (-108)	+110	Over 46 (-108)
Bills	-2 (-112)	-130	Under 46 (-108)

Chiefs vs. Bill’s prediction

Chiefs outlook

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown nine interceptions through nine games and is five shy of his career high of 14 last season.

But his 69.5% completion rate is also a career-best.

According to Robby Greerre’s quarterback rankings, Mahomes even has a Completion Over Expectation (CPOE) rate of 4.1%.

While Mahomes records more interceptions, he still throws the ball with a high degree of accuracy.

And when you look at the all-encompassing Total QBR metric, Mahomes ranks fifth with a value of 67.6.

Even when Mahomes posted his worst Total QBR (63.9) last season, the Chiefs still won their second straight title.

While we’ve become almost completely data-driven in sports today, it’s clear that the numbers don’t tell the whole story with the Chiefs.

As a result, we can’t overlook that there are intangibles at play here with the Chiefs, such as the continuity of their coaching staff and innate abilities to rise to the occasion in the game’s defining moments.

Bills outlook

Allen is having another great season and it’s hard to imagine him yet to win an MVP award.

This season, he has thrown 17 touchdowns and even rushed for four on the ground with just four interceptions. He boasts a total QBR of 70.2, which ranks him fourth in that category.

The Bills sit atop the AFC East at 8-2 and rank in the top 10 of both offensive and defensive DVOA metrics.

Allen has gotten the best of Mahomes in regular season meetings, going 3-1.

However, he has yet to get past his nemesis in the playoffs, where he is 0-3.

Where the Bills have struggled against Kansas City has often been a lack of execution or attention to detail.

Thus, they will probably not get a better opportunity to put themselves to the ultimate test than when they face the Chiefs.

Buffalo still needs to build its confidence if the two teams meet again in the playoffs.

If you look at the Eastern Conference standings, the Chiefs have the fifth highest point differential (+58), yet they are the only undefeated team.

By comparison, the Bills boast a +97 point differential – 39 points higher than Kansas City’s.

The Chiefs also have the highest happiness factor (+3.0) per TeamRankings, and at some point one has to wonder if such a level is sustainable.

Chiefs vs. Bills picks

I have to admit I’m completely torn on what direction to take in this game because the last thing you want to do is try to fade Mahomes as an underdog.

According to the Action Network, the Chiefs quarterback is 7-1-1 against the spread in the regular season at this spot and 12-1-1 if you include the postseason.

So while I’m leaning toward the Bills in this game, I still can’t fully commit to the home team.

One way to back up the Bills putting up the points, though, is to take Allen to go over his 7.5 rushing attempt cap.

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Bet on the NFL?

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Even though Allen has become much more of a pocket passer, he isn’t afraid to put his body on the line in these high gear games.

It’s worth noting that he’s gone over 7.5 rushing attempts in each of his four regular season games against the Chiefs.

The games matter more when the opponent is Kansas City, and I expect Allen to try to pull out all the stops in pursuit of a win.

Best offer: Josh Allen over 7.5 rushing attempts (-105, DraftKings)

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Why Trust New York Post Bets

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He has cashed in two 15-game teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-game parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. Recently, he precisely selected finalists for the European Championship in 2024 and the Copa America.