‘Red One’ comes in short for $10.9 million opening day

It’s starting to look like a $30 million opening weekend for Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans’ mega-budget Christmas actioner “Red One,” coming in on the shorter side of projections. Amazon MGM Studios has unwrapped $10.9 million from 4,032 theaters across opening day and previews in North America.

That’s not exactly a happy outcome for a special-effects adventure that plays prime large-format auditoriums and has a whopping $250 million production budget plus significant marketing costs. Unless the Seven Bucks production can stay relevant among the blitzes of “Wicked,” “Gladiator II” and “Moana 2” arriving ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, it seems unlikely that “Red One” will see the green light in its theatrical run.

The question remains how much Amazon really cares about being associated with tepid theatrical returns, what with the market cap north of $2 trillion and all. The price of the “Red One” doesn’t seem so scary in that context. Amazon bid big on the project back in 2021, and the logic is that the film could be a holiday season monster on Prime Video, where it could also complement Amazon’s e-commerce business amid Christmas shopping. Additionally, “Red One” was originally commissioned as a Prime Video exclusive before Amazon added a wide release, so any box office gains are presumably just extra socks for the company.

For Amazon MGM, “Red One” will easily score the banner’s biggest opening weekend since “Creed III,” which was commissioned under MGM’s old regime and released just a year after its acquisition. And “Red One” is on a brighter path than last spring’s Apple drama “Argylle,” another expensive action film with franchise potential. That film had a $200 million budget and finished with $96 million worldwide before hitting Apple TV+, which has a significantly smaller reach than Amazon Prime.

Still, there’s some bah humbugging to be had with “Red One” as a test of the stars’ theatrical appeal. The film won’t match the opening weekends of either of Johnson’s previous two vehicles, “Black Adam” ($67 million) and “Jungle Cruise” ($35 million), the latter of which simultaneously launched on Disney+ as a premium rental. And it’s not a triumphant theatrical return for Evans, whose leading live-action roles have lived on streaming since he finished playing Captain America in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

Directed by Jake Kasdan, “Red One” follows a plot of combat-trained specialists rescuing a kidnapped Santa Claus (JK Simmons). Critics panned the film, but audiences are much happier, with moviegoer Cinema Score earning a positive A grade among early ticket buyers. It needs to be on the public’s good list to have the chance to keep attracting audiences.

Sony’s “Venom: The Last Dance” had to slip to second place after spending three weekends atop the domestic charts, eyeing $6.1 million for a 61% drop in its fourth outing. The Marvel spin-off has now surpassed $120 million in North America and $400 million worldwide. Holding up well after an underwhelming launch, Tom Hardy’s buddy comedy now looks set to end up not too far behind its franchise predecessor “Let There Be Carnage,” which ended up grossing $500 million worldwide.

Third goes to “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever,” down 54% for $6 million. On a $10 million production budget, the Lionsgate release will cross $20 million domestically shortly after the weekend — a solid theatrical performance for Christian-focused production banner Kingdom Story Company.

A24’s psychological thriller “Heretic” looks set to slip to fourth, with rivals expecting another outing to $4.6 million. That would be a 57% drop. The Hugh Grant horror film will also cross $20 million by Monday.

Universal’s “The Wild Robot” looks set to round out the top five, projecting another slim drop (-32%) to shore up its gross by another $4.5 million. The DreamWorks Animation production is still kicking around at the top of the charts in its eighth weekend of release. It looks to hit a $137 million domestic total through Sunday. It will then pass fellow Lupita Nyong’o starrer “A Quiet Place: Day One” ($138 million) to crown itself as the 12th highest-grossing North American release this year.