Odds, lines, prop bets, predictions and picks

Tomorrow’s UFC 309 fight card features a heavyweight title fight as the main event. In that fight, UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones looks to defend his title for the first time. His opponent Saturday night at Madison Square Garden is former two-time UFC heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic.

The UFC 309 PPV fight card is streaming on ESPN+ following prelims on ESPNews and early prelims on ESPN+.

In tonight’s co-main event, former UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira faces Michael Chandler in a rematch of their meeting in 2021. Oliveira won that contest via second-round TKO to claim the vacant UFC 155-pound title.

Also on the UFC 309 PPV fight card is a middleweight matchup between rising Bo Nickal and UFC veteran Paul Craig.

Below we look at odds, line moves, potential prop bets, fight picks, predictions and more for tomorrow’s UFC 309 fight card.

UFC 309 Main Event: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic

When the UFC 309 betting lines were first announced by BetMGM, Jon Jones was a -650 favorite over Stipe Miocic, who came in at +475. Jones has remained steady at -650, while the former champion is a +450 betting favorite as fight night approaches.

With the odds so one-sided, Miocic is a good value bet. As such, 83 percent of UFC 309 main event bets have come in on the former champion, while 58 percent of the handle is also on Miocic.

The betting pick for this fight is for Jones to win via decision, but don’t shy away from going where there’s a lot of value, and that’s Miocic via knockout.

UFC 309 Co-Main Event: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler 2

Opening odds for the lightweight co-main event saw Oliveira at -250 and Chandler at +200. There has been little movement in that line of effort. Today, the former UFC champion is -275, while Chandler is listed at +210.

Oliveira has collected 79 percent of the stakes and 58 percent of the money ahead of Saturday night.

The UFC 309 co-main event betting pick is for Oliveira to win via submission.

UFC 309: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig

As has been the case in all of his UFC fights, Bo Nickal opened as a massive betting favorite, coming in at -1000 over +650 Paul Craig. Nickal has only become a more significant favorite. Today, the former Penn State wrestler is listed at -1400 over Craig, who is the +800 betting underdog.

Craig has taken 84 percent of bets ahead of this matchup, while Nickal has picked up 58 percent of the handle.

The betting selection is for Nickal to win via knockout.

UFC 309: Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva

The fight between Viviane Araujo and Karine Silva is an important matchup for the UFC women’s flyweight division. When the betting lines were first announced for this contest, Araujo was a +225 underdog to -275 Silva. Today, Silva is listed at -300 and Araujo at +240.

Araujo, who has been with the UFC longer, has 65 percent of the stakes and 66 percent of the money on her.

The betting pick is for Silva to win via decision.

UFC 309: Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Lontop

This catchweight bout was a late addition to the UFC 309 fight card. The fight came together after Charlie Campbell pulled out of his scheduled fight against Mauricio Ruffy. James Llontop agreed to the fight in late October.

Luffy was -750 betting favorite when the match was first announced. Today he is listed at -900. Llontop opened at +525. He is now at +600.

Llontop has 70 of the stakes on him, but Luffy has picked up 96 percent of the handle.

The bet is that Luffy wins via knockout.

UFC 309 Most Bet Prop Bets

According to BetMGM, the following are the top prop bets for the UFC 309 fight card:

Stipe Miocic by KO/TKO or DQ +700

Jon Jones by KO/TKO or DQ +100

Jon Jones on submission +200

Paul Craig on submission +1000

Jon Jones in Round 2 +400

UFC 309 Most Bet Fights

According to BetMGM, the following are the most betting fights on the UFC 309 card.

Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic

Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler

Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig

Oban Elliot vs. Basil Hafez

Chris Weidman vs. Eric Anders

UFC 309 Fight Card Preview

Jon Jones (27-1-0-1) captured the vacant UFC heavyweight crown in March 2023 with a first-round submission victory over Ciryl Gane. The UFC heavyweight title was left vacant when Francis Ngannou left the promotion as a free agent to sign with the PFL in early 2023.

The UFC originally booked Jones vs. Miocic to UFC 295. UFC boss Dana White announced that fight in July 2023, saying at the time, “This is the fight Jon Jones wanted. It’s the fight Stipe wanted. It’s a legacy fight for both of these guys.”

Jones vs. The Miocic fight fell apart when Jones suffered a torn pectoral muscle in training. With Jones off the card, the UFC opted to book an interim title fight between Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich. Aspinall won that fight, and the interim title, with a knockout in 69 seconds.

Miocic (20-4) has not stepped into the Octagon since losing the title to Ngannou by knockout in March 2021.

Charles Oliveira (34-10-0-1) has been fighting with the UFC since 2010. He won the vacant lightweight title with his victory over Chandler and defended the title once, beating Dustin Poirier. He was booked to face Justin Gaethje in his second title defense, but Oliveira missed weight for the fight, which he won by submission and lost the title at the weight.

Oliveira had a chance to regain the belt in October 2022, but Islam Makhachev submitted him and claimed the vacant belt. Since that loss, Oliveira is 1-1, beat Beneil Dariush by TKO in June 2023 and lost to Arman Tsarukyan via split decision in April of this year.

Oliveira is the No. 2 fighter in official UFC lightweight rankings.

Michael Chandler (23-8) had been waiting for a matchup with Conor McGregor. After an extended delay, that fight was booked for UFC 303 in June. However, a broken toe during training camp prevented McGregor from competing.

Chandler last fought in November 2022 when he lost to former interim UFC lightweight champion Dustin Poirier. Chandler signed with the UFC as a free agent in 2020. He made his UC debut in January 2021 with a knockout win over Dan Hooker.

Oliveira and Chandler met in the main event of UFC 262 in May 2021. Oliveira won that contest via second-round TKO, claiming the vacant UFC 155-pound title in the process.

Bo Nickal (6-0), who earned a UFC contract after one fight on Jorge Masvidal’s iKON FC card and two appearances on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2022, is 3-0 in the UFC with three submission wins. Nickal has not gone past the second round in any of his pro fights, and prior to his UFC 300 bout against Cody Brundage, he had not fought past the 2:54 mark of the first round.

Paul Craig (17-8-1) has been in the UFC since 2016. Things haven’t gone well for Craig the past two years. He is 1-4 over that time, with a TKO win over Andre Muniz and losses to Volkan Oezdemir, Johnny Walker, Brendan Allen and Caio Borralho. His most recent outing was a knockout loss to Borralho in May.

Nickal has been a monster betting favorite in all of his UFC outings. In his promotional debut, Nickal was a -2500 favorite over Jamie Pickett. His next match, against late replacement Val Woodburn, Nickal came in at -2200. In Nickal’s latest outing, he was a -1800 favorite over Brundage.

Nickal was a three-time NCAA Division I national champion and three-time Big Ten Conference champion for head coach Cael Sanderson and the Penn State Nittany Lions. Nickal was runner-up in the 2016 NCAA finals, losing to Myles Martin of Ohio State. Nickal beat Martin in the 2018 final. Nickal had a career record of 131-5 with Penn State. He went 61-0 in his final two years.

UFC 309 takes place at Madison Square Garden on November 16.