Potential tropical storm Sara Spaghetti models show impact on Florida

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) began issuing advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen — which is expected to soon strengthen to Tropical Storm Sara — Wednesday afternoon as some forecast models predict a storm path toward Florida.

Meteorologists have been tracking the storm for the past week, and the chances of it forming are gradually increasing. Tropical Storm Sara is expected to form Thursday morning and become a hurricane Friday night and a major hurricane Saturday night, AccuWeather said.

Most spaghetti models — or computer models that illustrate potential storm paths — expect the storm to cut through the Yucatán Peninsula and then loop around the Gulf of Mexico. From there, a large area of ​​high pressure over the southeastern United States will determine the storm’s path, depending on whether the high pressure weakens or strengthens, AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said. Newsweek.

Several spaghetti models predict the storm will then take aim at Florida, making landfall in the Panhandle or Big Bend region, though DaSilva said he believes the biggest threat will be to South Florida.

In the Caribbean, environmental conditions are prepared for storm development.

“There’s not much to stop this from potentially becoming a major hurricane,” DaSilva said. “It’s definitely in the cards.”

However, the western Gulf states like Texas and Louisiana have “almost no risk” with this storm, DaSilva said.

Other spaghetti models do not predict landfall in Florida at all and show the storm looping toward Cuba. Other models show the storm taking a hard, northerly turn, cutting across Cuba near where Hurricane Rafael made landfall earlier this month and then moving toward Florida.

Meanwhile, the NHC said it is too early to know whether the storm will have an impact on Florida or Cuba. However, life-threatening impacts are expected in Central America later this week.

“Early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across parts of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua,” reads the NHC forecast.

It continued: “The disturbance is expected to be near hurricane strength as it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible over parts of this area.”

The system is then likely to approach Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula early next week, either at or near hurricane strength, the NHC said. There it will bring the threat of storm surges and damaging winds.

AccuWeather meteorologists warned that rapid intensification is expected with Sara as it rapidly strengthens later this week.