The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the system in the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Rafael

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor an Atlantic system with low odds of developing into the season’s next tropical depression or storm and weakening Tropical Storm Rafael.

From the NHC 7 am tropical outlook, disorganized showers and thunderstorms have dropped in area coverage since yesterday near a low pressure trough less than a few hundred miles east of the central Bahamas.

“Development becomes less likely as the system is expected to reach more adverse environmental conditions later today,” forecasters said. “Regardless of development, locally heavy rain and gusty winds are possible as the system generally moves westward over the Bahamas through tonight.”

The NHC gave it a 10% chance of development in the next two to seven days.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rafael continues to weaken in the Gulf of Mexico and poses no threat to land for now.

As of the NHC 4 am tropical outlook, Tropical Storm Rafael was 555 miles north-northwest of Progresso, Mexico, moving north-northwest at 2 mph. Its maximum sustained winds are 40 mph, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center.

Forecasters said the storm is expected to sweep across the central Gulf of Mexico through tonight, then turn to the south and southwest on Monday and Tuesday.

“Weakening is expected early next week, and Rafael is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant by Monday,” the NHC said.

Rafael became the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1-Nov. 30. It was the 11th hurricane and the fifth major hurricane of the above-average season.

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