Cooler and more unsettled weather on the way

High pressure continues the largely dry theme we’ve seen through most of November so far, though with some more persistent rain likely in parts of western Scotland from Friday.

According to the early provisional figures from the Met Office up to November 11, sunshine has been in short supply so far, with 8.3 hours of sunshine accounting for just 14% of the long-term average for the whole month for the UK. At this point you would normally expect to have seen around 37% of the average for the month.

The UK has also had its driest start to the month on record in a streak dating back to 1891. On average, just 3.5mm of rain has fallen in the UK so far this month, which is 3% of the long-term average for the whole month . Of course, with more than half of the month remaining, there is time for these numbers to change significantly.

A change is coming

A marked change to more unsettled and also colder weather is expected over the weekend, as the high pressure gradually subsides and causes the wind to begin to come in from the north or northwest.

Meteorologist Mark Sidaway, deputy head of the Meteorological Office, said: “The high pressure that has been responsible for the mostly dry weather for most of this week will retreat into the Atlantic as we approach the weekend. This will gradually introduce more unsettled weather, first in the north from Friday, but more widespread from Sunday.

“In addition to this increased rainfall, which could be heavy at times on Sunday, temperatures will also drop, particularly for those in Scotland, as a northerly airstream develops, bringing colder arctic air to some northern areas.

“This shift introduces the possibility of snow, initially over high ground in the north from Sunday, with gusty winds also a potential danger. There is some uncertainty on Sunday, but there are still a number of scenarios which could bring some more widespread rain, along with some snow and stronger winds. Winter hazard warnings are possible later this weekend, so it’s important to stay up to date with the latest forecast.”

The full extent of the long-term forecast will be explored in Met Office’s Deep Dive video today (Tuesday), which is available via YouTube and via the Met Office app.

Find out more about the details of how UK snow forecasts work, as well as why some online headlines don’t always reflect the reality of the forecast.

You can find the latest weather forecast on our website, atYouTubeby following us furtherXandFacebookas well as on our mobile app, which is available for iPhone fromApp storeand for Android fromGoogle Play store.