UFC 309: Daniel Cormier’s three keys that will make or break Jones-Miocic

When it comes to breaking down Saturday’s heavyweight title fight headlining UFC 309 — one of the most anticipated matchups in divisional history — no one has a deeper understanding of what it’s like to be locked inside the Octagon with Jon Jones or Stipe Miocic than former UFC double champion Daniel Cormier.

No fighter has spent more time in the cage with Jones, the champion, than Cormier – 38 minutes, 1 second – over two fights. And DC also knows what it’s like to be in the cage with Miocic, the former titleholder, as they shared the only trilogy in UFC heavyweight history from 2018 to 2020.

Cormier brought out the best in Jones and the worst as their fights extended beyond the Octagon. At a press conference in 2014 to hype their first meeting, Jones and Cormier argued in the lobby of the MGM Grand hotel in Las Vegas. They also engaged in a heated verbal battle while off-air during an appearance on “SportsCenter.” All of this – plus their fights – gave MMA one of its most notable rivalries. Cormier lost the first fight against Jones via unanimous decision in January 2015, and the July 2017 rematch ended in a Jones knockout, but after Jones tested positive for a banned substance, he was ruled a no-contest.

In the trilogy with Miocic, Cormier won the first fight in July 2018 with a stunning first-round knockout, adding the heavyweight championship to the light heavyweight title he already held. Miocic got revenge in the rematch, beating Cormier by fourth-round knockout in August 2019. He beat Cormier by unanimous decision in their last fight a year later.

“They say your opponents elevate you,” Cormier told ESPN. “Those guys lifted me up. I owe a lot of my success to them (and) I hope I made them prepare even better to make sure the games were the way they were.”

With so much experience against two of the sport’s most decorated fighters, Cormier is well positioned to break down the matchup and challenges. How will Jones fare against a bigger heavyweight while dealing with a lengthy layoff due to a torn pectoral tendon? How will Miocic fare after a 3½-year layoff from the sport?

Cormier sat down with UFC announcer Jon Anik to highlight three factors that could affect the outcome, and also spoke with ESPN’s Dre Waters to elaborate on his thoughts.

Editor’s note: The conversation between Cormier and Anik can be found on ESPN MMA’s YouTube channel.

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Be versatile on your feet

Jones is perhaps the most well-rounded fighter in MMA history. Because he is skilled in all three facets of the game (striking, wrestling, grappling), Jones fights with a freedom in the Octagon that we rarely see. He can throw everything from flying knees to spinning elbows because he knows he’ll be comfortable wherever his creative offense may take the fight.

Jones’ different strokes are also a key to his ability to read what his opponents are doing. “Jones has a nasty body kick (and) he uses it to set up the head kick because (the opponent’s) elbow starts to drag,” Cormier said, thinking back to his first fight with Jones. “You start worrying about the kick to the body and then he drives it up.”

To counter Jones’ diverse arsenal, Miocic needs to use his boxing-heavy style to consistently pressure Jones and dictate the range at which the fight takes place.

“Miocic will not have the height disadvantage that I had when I faced Jones,” said Cormier, who is 5-foot-11 — 5 inches shorter than both Miocic and Jones. “I couldn’t touch Jones until I was very close to him. Miocic is a lot bigger so he will be able to get going earlier.

Miocic needs to be within Jones’ kicking range. He can hit Jones before he’s in range of (Jones’) knees to the body while still being in range of Jones’ head and body kicks.”

According to Cormier, when Miocic is in this range, he needs to mix up his punches and combinations to set up the left hook.

“When you’re facing a southpaw (as an orthodox fighter), your lead hand becomes secondary,” Cormier said. “Miocic needs to be able to switch it up and lead with the backhand and then mix up the jab to create openings for the lead hook.”

Miocic must also alternate between targeting Jones’ head and body, Cormier believes, because the former heavyweight champion is one of the few fighters who has “real power” in his body shots. That power can affect Jones.

“If (Miocic) goes one way to victory, it’s not going to work,” Cormier said. “He’s got to give (Jones) a lot of information to process.”

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Pay attention to the clinch

Cormier believes the exchanges — on the feet, not necessarily on the mat — could be the key to any fighter getting his hand raised. For Jones, who quickly disposed of Ciryl Gane in March 2023 to claim the title in his first heavyweight bout, this will be his first real test against a fighter who knows how to impose his size and strength on opponents. Gane comes from a kickboxing background, while Miocic has experience as a wrestler.

“In the near future, (Miocic) will be able to carry Jones,” Cormier said. “(We’ve seen) big guys give Jon Jones trouble. A lot of his best weapons are in range.”

But Miocic also needs to be careful in the clinch. In Cormier’s first fight against Miocic, Cormier found an opening that he took advantage of during an exchange. He believes Jones can be successful in similar cases on Saturday.

“When Stipe and I would come together, I found a lot of success landing punches when he would leave (the clinch),” Cormier said. “Because when he goes out, he tends to leave his left hand low. And he allowed the clinch positions to play themselves out.”

One such exchange resulted in Cormier getting the knockout.

“When I wanted to rebuild the underhook … he tried to control my overhand … but (I) wrapped that punch around (Miocic’s) low, straight arm. That’s what Stipe Miocic can’t do in this fight with Jon Jones , because even though Jones might not land a punch that could hurt him like that, there are different weapons he could use — elbows, back elbows, all those creative weapons that could be a problem.”

Because of Jones’ extraordinary reach — 84.5 inches, the second-longest in the UFC — it’s easier for him to throw elbows when he’s up close than it is for him to land punches.

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Change your tendencies

When skilled strikers like Jones and Miocic lock out, the smallest adjustments can be the difference between winning and losing.

According to Cormier, in his second fight with Miocic, Miocic saw an opening middle fight and used big to win. Cormier believes Jones could present Miocic with the same opening.

“Stipe recognized that I raised my hands to gauge range, so he switched to body shots,” Cormier said. “But it didn’t happen until the third or fourth round. He recognized that I left my body open when I wanted to throw my jab or when I wanted to get close.

“That’s a great weapon he might be able to use against Jon Jones… If Jon isn’t careful when he reaches out like he does, he could leave himself open to that body shot.”

Jones also proved that he can make the most of his opponent’s openings in his few fights with Cormier. Jones did it by changing trends between games.

“They knew they were finding success with weapons to my body, but a lot of it (in Jones-Cormier 1) was kicks and knees,” Cormier said. “(In Jones-Cormier 2) Jon started using his hands to get the same result — I dropped my right elbow — to try to set up the high kick… Jon (knew) to weapon the right side (would ) ultimately make me drop the elbow, and when I did, Jones was able to find that opening and land the head kick.

Have Jones and Miocic seen the same holes in each other’s games as Cormier? If so, will they be able to take advantage of the openings when they present themselves? Who will be sharper when both men have been inactive?

The MMA world has many questions that need to be answered. Saturday night we will get that clarity.