‘Bama Basketball Breakdown: Arkansas State brings a familiar face — and style of play — to Tuscaloosa

Alabama, fresh off a 110-54 defenestration of UNC Asheville isn’t exactly turning back to Coleman for a breezy exhibition. Game two of the season is a team led by a man who knows Alabama and Nate Oats more intimately than most: Nate’s longtime assistant, Bryan Hodgson and his Arkansas State Red Wolves.

Tale of the Tape: Arkansas State (1-0) at No. 2 Alabama (1-0)

Spread (total): Alabama -23.5 (167.5)

ASU KenPom: 120 (101 attack, 157 defense, 102 pace)
ASU’s Evan Miya: 115 (101 attack, 148 defense, 142 pace)
ASU Bart Torvik: 142 (118 attack, 170 defense, 152 pace)
Opponent NET: Q3

Alabama KenPom: 5 (2 Attack, 23 Defense, 8 Pace)
Alabama Evan Miya: 2 (2 attack, 11 defense, 5 pace)
Alabama Bart Torvik: 5 (3 Attack, 17 Defense, 12 Pace)
NET Ranking: REACH

At ASU, Hodgson has been nothing short of a revelation. In one season, he took a team that was eight games under .500 the year before, led them to a 4th place finish in the Sun Belt, an improbable SBC Tourney title, and was one point away from playing for the CBI championship in the postseason.

Last year’s 20-17 record at ASU might seem deceptively mediocre, but considering where ASU was, it’s a lot more impressive than it looks — it was their first winning season in nearly a decade. With the Red Wolves aiming to be a pace-rim-and-perimeter Alabama clone, one led from the guards, this will be a very good early-season mirror for the Tide to look in. And while ASU wants to play pace , they didn’t stand out for the pace against Akron. Small dataset and whatnot, but ASU is in the middle of the pack.

The defense is also average, having given up 40% from the floor, 10 threes and 85 points against Akron. The Zips are the defending MAC champions, so they are solid. But the deep bench of Akron guards feasted on the Red Wolves, getting 62 of those points. Perimeter defense was also a particular concern against motion: Akron had 19 assists on its 28 total buckets.

Offensively, the Red Wolves are led by Taryn Todd. The very active wing defender was ASU’s leading scorer last season, can put the ball on the floor off the dribble and is a solid FT shooter and a respectable 42% from the floor. PG Derrian Ford is the best perimeter shooter for the Wolves (career 38% shooting from the arc) and also one of ASU’s most solid FT shooters. However, he is a rather lazy defender and almost never goes for rebounds.

But the core of this team likely comes from a trio of transfers, including some SEC talent that immediately paid dividends. PF Joseph Pinion looks to have a big season. He was SG at Arkansas, but moving to the Sun Belt has allowed the 6’8” Pinion to move to F/PF. He is also careful with the ball. In addition to leading the Wolves in scoring against Akron, he had zero turnovers in his 48 total touches and was absolutely lethal when he stepped outside (4 of 5 from three). This will be a good match for Grant and Jarin. He is very much a player in their swing-forward mold.

At the post is Rashaud Marshall, a transfer from Ole Miss, and already the team’s most impactful rebounder and rim defender. Finally, there’s the player who (along with Pinion) I think might be the Red Wolves’ best come season’s end, ULL transfer wing Kobe Julien. Kobe was a star for the Ragin’ Cajuns last season, averaging nearly 18/5 a game, and he’s also an excellent FT shooter. Against Akron, he scored 14, had six ORB, a pair of assists and blocked four shots.

It looks to be a bit tougher of a fight than the jerseys suggest. This is going to appear on the early schedule as a NET Tier 3 contest, but will likely turn out to be a T2 win by the end of the year.

Last season, ASU was 3rd in 3P shooting defense and 46th nationally in 3P rate, and they’ve only gotten more talented in the offseason, with the addition of some former SEC talent via the portal. They are not that good from the perimeter this year (at least after one game). But they will still launch them. The Red Wolves put up 34 on Monday night (net of 9, for 29%).

So it’s going to be that kind of game. And when you have a team that shoots as many as the Red Wolves do, with four scorers who can also put the ball on the floor and attack the post, it’s always a bit dangerous – the three-point shot is the big equalizer, and a hot night can give even a solid underdog a puncher’s chance.

Still, ASU’s bench is thin and they’re a pretty small team that doesn’t defend very well. As with Asheville, Bama’s size should cause problems for the Red Wolves. So will ‘Bama’s ball movement and three-point shooting. Given ASU’s weaknesses defensively at the guards, I would expect a far bigger night for the Tide from beyond the arc.

ASU is a quality opponent nonetheless. And if anyone knows Nate Oats, it’s Coach Hodgson. But the Tide’s length and ball movement here are overwhelming, as is the bench. ASU is going to struggle to keep their best five on the floor.

You can’t ask the Tide’s talented bench to fret over running the clock, or expect Alabama to give it more than 100% on both ends of the floor for 40 minutes. To that end, I think ‘Bama gets a pretty nice win in the triple digits and practically covers this one.

This is your game thread for the evening. The game tips off at 7:00 Central and can be seen on ESPN (or streamed on ESPN+).

Roll Tide and chime in below.