Category 2 storms in the Gulf of Mexico

On By Littum

Hurricane Rafael remained a “powerful compact hurricane” as it slowly churned in the central Gulf of Mexico, US forecasters said Friday.

According to the latest update from the National Hurricane CenterRafael is located about 230 miles north-northeast of Progeso, Mexico and 535 miles east of the mouth of the Rio Grande. It is moving west at 9 mph.

“Slower west-northwesterly movement is expected over the next day or so,” the hurricane center said. “After that, Rafael will likely meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through early next week.”

A map showing Rafael's projected path. (NOAA/National Weather Service)A map showing Rafael's projected path. (NOAA/National Weather Service)

A map showing Rafael’s projected path. (NOAA/National Weather Service)

Rafael is currently a Category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. But “steady weakening is expected over the next few days,” the hurricane center said.

Rafael made landfall in the Cuban province of Artemisa, just east of Playa Majana, on Wednesday, with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, which weakened slightly as it crossed the island.

A car drives along a road littered with downed power lines after Hurricane Rafael passed through San Antonio de los Banos, Cuba, on Thursday. (Ramon Espinosa/AP)A car drives along a road littered with downed power lines after Hurricane Rafael passed through San Antonio de los Banos, Cuba, on Thursday. (Ramon Espinosa/AP)

A car drives along a road littered with downed power lines after Hurricane Rafael passed through San Antonio de los Banos, Cuba, on Thursday. (Ramon Espinosa/AP)

There are currently no coast guards or warnings associated with Rafael, but the hurricane center said “interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico” should monitor its progress.

“Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread over most of the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days,” the hurricane center added. “These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.”

It is too early to say. Long-range forecast models disagree on its ultimate path as Rafael encounters wind shear and drier air in the Gulf.

“Small differences in Rafael’s intensity and atmospheric steering winds can have a significant impact on its final track,” AccuWeather meteorologist Bill Deger told USA Today. “It is also possible that Rafael will be torn apart by strong winds high in the atmosphere and disappear into the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall.”