Cal can’t cover big numbers on the road

Two teams looking to stay in the hunt for bowl eligibility kick off tonight as the California Golden Bears face the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.

The Golden Bears have lost four of their last five games, while the Demon Deacons have gained steam and should carry their momentum into this crucial clash. Read on for my California vs. Wake Forest predictions and college football picks for Friday, November 8.

Kickoff is set for 8:00 PM ET from Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium in Winston-Salem, where the game will be broadcast on the ACC Network.

California vs Wake Forest prediction and best bet

My best bet
Wake Forest +7 (-110 at BetMGM)
Selections made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

Friday night’s game should be hotly contested as both the California Golden Bears and Wake Forest Demon Deacons battle for a bowl appearance. Cal is still looking for its first ever ACC win, while Wake is looking for its fourth win in five games.

It’s been a frustrating season for Cal. The Bears have played quality football, for the most part, but are winless in conference play with their four losses by a combined nine points.

Wake has been the reverse, with the Demon Deacons’ last three wins coming by a combined 10 points. Both teams have a habit of playing in one-score games — Wake has done so in four of the last five, while the same could be said for Cal — so I’ll take the points with the Demon Deacons in what predicts to be a close contest.

Wake was without its two cornerbacks, Jamare Glasker and Capone Blue, against Stanford, but both may return this week. Glasker was out with a fever and is likely to be well again after the bye.

The Demon Deacons have been bad on defense (120th in EPA per game) for most of the year, but they’re getting healthier, and it’s not like Cal has been deadly on offense (84th in success rate).

The Bears really struggle to block, ranking No. 115 in line yards, No. 126 in front-seven destruction and No. 96 in stuff rate. It’s hard to trust a team that puts up a full touchdown on the way to a road trip, especially when it can’t block. The Bears were the victims of Florida State’s only win of the season, surrendering 12 TFLs in a total collapse up front.

I don’t see enough separating these teams to trust Cal at this number. For example, Wake is PFF’s 54th ranked team while Cal is 70th. Those are two teams of the same caliber, so I’ll take the points with the home team in what seems like a close game.

California vs Wake Forest parlay in the same game (SGP)

Wake Forest +7

Fernando Mendoza Over 254.5 passing yards

Jaydn Ott anytime TD

Horatio Fields Over 49.5 receiving yards

Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza has thrown for at least 270 yards in five straight games. He matches up with a Wake secondary that has struggled all year, ranking as the no. 127 in EPA per passport and no. 133 in pass success rate.

Cal’s biggest problem offensively is its inability to block, but that concern is mitigated against a Wake team with just 10 sacks on the year and a rank of 129th in front-seven mayhem.

The Bears have a star running back in Jaydn Ott. The NFL Draft prospect accumulated 1,484 yards and 14 touchdowns a year ago, but hasn’t been able to show his ability this year while battling injuries. He returned to the field last game and was described as the healthiest he’s been all year, and I expect him to look a bit more like his former self after the much-needed bye week.

The Wake player I’m focusing on in the prop market is Horatio Fields.

Locked into a big role in the absence of teammate Donavon Greene, he has seen at least seven goals in four of his last five games. I’d bet on him reaching 50 receiving yards as one of his team’s best options offensively, especially if star running back Demond Claiborne is less than 100% after leaving the Deacons’ last game and putting ice on his shoulder.

Learn how to bet on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

California vs Wake Forest odds

California vs Wake Forest live odds

California vs Wake Forest opening odds

• California vs Wake Forest spread: Wake Forest +7.5
• California vs Wake Forest money line: California -275, Wake Forest +220
• California vs. Wake Forest Over/Under: 54.5

Odds provided by BetMGM

California vs Wake Forest spread and Over/Under analysis

• This will be the first ever meeting between these two schools. Cal has traveled East three times this year, beating Auburn and losing to both Florida State and Pittsburgh.
• Cal has struggled in conference play under Justin Wilcox for a while now, going 2-10 in its last 12 games against conference opponents.
• Wake has tended to come into first halves with high scores and has hit the 1H Total Over in seven of its last 11 games. It provides a contrast of styles against a Cal team that has conceded the Under in six straight road games.

California vs Wake Forest betting trend to know

In Cal’s last 18 games against Power Conference teams, it has won by more than seven points just twice. Find more college football betting trends for California vs Wake Forest.

California vs Wake Forest game info

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The weather in California against Wake Forest

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