Hawkeye Football: Iowa vs. UCLA Statistical Preview

On November 9, 2024By Littum

January 1, 1986, I’m 5.5 years old and Iowa is playing UCLA in the Rose bowl. I won’t lie, I have no memory whatsoever of this game. Of course, the names of the Iowa players are familiar (Chuck Long, Ronny Harmon, Quinn Early, etc…). I’ll admit that only one name on the UCLA roster stands out (and I’m honestly surprised this hasn’t been mentioned) by anyone – that I’ve heard – in the lead up to this game, Flipper Anderson. It’s kind of cool and interesting that two back-to-back games (given that they’re about 39 years apart) have a father and son on opposite sides of the ball. I think what I remember most about this game from my life is people arguing about whether Ronnie Harmon’s performance could be chalked up to something more evil than a kid just having a bad game ( even Hayden Fry had to come to his defense).

Iowa’s history in the Rose Bowl isn’t exactly inspiring (their last win in Pasadena was in 1952) and our last 4 trips have been less than fun. However, this will be Iowa’s first regular season game in the Rose Bowl, and a win would be the first for Kirk Ferentz in the stadium. It might not be a bowl game, but it will be historic nonetheless, and it sounds like there could be an awful lot of Black & Gold in the stands.

Let’s see what the numbers tell us about this matchup.

Crime

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 2 Wisconsin in Iowa

Iowa – 356.1 ypg (133.8 yds passing, 222.3 yds rushing), 30.8 ppg
UCLA – 309.1 ypg (235.3 passing, 73.9 rushing), 18.6 ppg

Last Saturday, Iowa put on a rushing clinic, racking up 329 yards on the ground (6.1 ypc) with 4 different players (KJ2, KM28, JP9, & QB1) rushing for 50+ yards in a game for the first time in The Ferentz era (maybe ever, I’m not going to do that research). Brendan Sullivan did what we needed him to do, he made makeables, took care of the ball and stayed out of dangerous situations. 7/10 for 93 yards, 1 TD and 0 INTs won’t win any awards, but if Iowa can average 6 ypc and 5 rushing TDs a game, I don’t think anyone will complain (especially when he picks up 1st downs with the legs, extending plays and keeping the defense honest as a running threat). He also managed to throw for the longest play from scrimmage Iowa has had this year (Zac Ortwerth’s 50+ scamper), so you know, not too bad. Let’s hope he can repeat that performance in LA because no one knows what QB2 looks like in a game situation.

Let’s be honest, Wisconsin is a bad team right now, and luckily for Iowa, UCLA is a pretty bad team right now, too. DeShaun Foster took over a program in disarray and is doing an admirable job of rebuilding it that Chip Kelly neglected, but it’s year one and he pretty much started from scratch. Last week’s win in Lincoln over a Raiola-less Nebraska team gave him his first streak and the biggest road win of his very young career, but neither Rutgers or Nebraska is Iowa, at least not “November” Iowa.

Not unlike Breadyn Locke in Madison, UCLA’s Ethan Garbers can be dangerous for either team. He’s not a mobile QB, but can make plays with his legs when he needs to, completing 65% of his passes for 12.1 ypc and has thrown 10 TDs. Unfortunately for UCLA, he has also thrown 9 INTs. There isn’t much to talk about during the game, with carries split three ways and none of UCLA’s three backs amassing more than 230 yards through 8 games. Foster is still looking for his first win in Pasadena as a HC, I’m not sure this is the week it happens, especially with the team just coming off a brtual road trip with back to back road games in Piscataway and Lincoln and now looking at a short week.

ADVANTAGE: Iowa (assuming QB1 plays full game)

Defense

Iowa – 309.8 ypg (203.4 passing, 106.3 rushing, 5.0 ypp), 18 ppg
UCLA – 361.6 ypg (261.3 passing, 100.4 rushing, 5.5 ypp), 27.9 ppg

For the second week in a row, Iowa’s defense pretty much shut down their opponent. The Badgers were able to move the ball on their first drive, but after taking a FG lead, it was pretty much all Iowa until garbage time (I’d say any drive that happens after you go up 25 points, is garbage time) . Between their first drive and their ninth, Iowa forced 5 punts and picked off Braedyn Locke twice, allowing WIsconsin just 71 yards on 30 plays (2.36 ypp). It is very, very, good. Deshaun Lee had a touchdown that saved PBU on the first drive and an INT on the second and then locked down his side of the field for most of the night. Jermari Harris got beat for possibly the first time all season and gave up UW’s only TD (to pull them within 18 in the 4th), but otherwise looked untouchable and the rest of the D looked more like last year than they have all the year. It’s a good trend and I hope it continues.

UCLA’s defense last year was incredible, in fact there were only 5 defenses in the country that were superior (Iowa being one of them). That defense was led by D’Anton Lynn, who is now the defensive coordinator at USC. Needless to say, UCLA’s defense has dropped off some, but they are still strong against the run (allowing just 3.3 ypc), so the offensive line has their work cut out for them. However, their secondary is pretty bad, giving up 260+ yards per carry. game, so maybe this is the game where we see Tim Lester open up the playbook and emphasize the P in RPO a little more, especially since UCLA isn’t putting up huge sack numbers.

ADVANTAGE – Iowa (but I think it’s closer than the numbers show)

Special teams

Iowa – 45.4 ypr, 78.6% fgm, 25.3 ypkr, 12.9 ypr, 1 TD
UCLA – 43.1 yppr, 80% fgm, 18.7 ypkr, 14.3 yppr

Rhys Dakin was really the only S/T player who got a chance to impact the game on Saturday and even then it wasn’t a huge impact. He averaged 53.3 ypp (with a long of 57), but like Iowa on all 4 of their possessions in the second half, his game was done at the half and Drew was perfect in the XP game. Drew is still second on the team in points (and there’s a lot of distance in both directions), but hasn’t had many chip shots lately, and Kaden has been forced into a lot of fair catches and touchbacks since housing returning vs. NW.

Fun fact, UCLA’s QB1 (Ethan Garbers) has 1 punt this season for 41 yards. Their regular punter is a Scottsdale native who averages 43.4 yards per carry. punt with a long of 61 and a ~43% IN20%. He’s no Rhys Dakin, but he’s no slouch. You’d think UCLA would have returned a lot of kicks based on their average points allowed, but they seem to let a lot of kicks go for TB and have returned a total of 4 punts on the season.

ADVANTAGE – Iowa (as if there really was any doubt)

DeShaun Foster was something of a surprise hire in the offseason after Chip Kelly moved in for Columbus, and he has his work cut out for him. He’s not there yet, but his kids are playing hard and it’s clear he wants to get UCLA back to where they were his first few years in college. You never know how things will go when you hire a former player with no head coaching experience, but sometimes it works out…

That said, this is Iowa’s game to lose (which they might). There’s no QB controversy this week, but if Sullivan has a bad showing, there could be one two weeks from now when the Hawks roll into College Park.

Speak to see

1 – Brendan Sullivan, QB1. We will all be watching, very closely.

2 – KJ2 added 3 more TDs and another 100+ yard game last week, and while he probably won’t break Shonn Greene’s yardage record, the TD record is almost certain to fall this week.

4 – Ethan Garbers is the beating heart of this offense, and if he can have another game like he’s had the last two weeks, this game could get away from the Hawks. His season stats may not be stellar, but the last two weeks have been pretty solid – 49/63 for 602 yards and 6 TDs through the air and 15 carries for 104 yards and another TD on the ground, all with zero turnovers.

8 – DeShaun Lee seems to have locked down his spot at Right Corner and had a hell of a game against Wisconsin with 3 solo tackles, a pick and a PBU. He took every meaningful snap in the RCB slot and had the highest PFF grade of any Iowa DB (77.3 overall).

17 – UCLA’s offense hasn’t had many bright spots this season, but Logan Loya is one of them. He is #3 on the team in catches and leads the team in TDs (with 3). Looking at UCLA’s offensive stats is a lot like looking at Iowa’s offensive stats from a year ago.

As always, GO HAWKS!!!