Steelers NFL midseason predictions: Mike Tomlin wins award, first playoff game since 2016

The Pittsburgh Steelers entered the bye week on a high note, riding a three-game winning streak and sitting atop the AFC North at 6-2.

Before the season, Vegas oddsmakers predicted the Steelers would finish last in the division. Now, if the Steelers can succeed in a second half full of AFC North opponents, there is a realistic chance they can become the best of the four teams and host a playoff game.

It will certainly be an eventful and important second half of the season. With that in mind, it’s time to make some predictions for the second half of the year.

Note: All stats go into Week 10 and do not take into account the Thursday Night Football score.

The Steelers will finish with a top-five rushing attack

Over the past several seasons, the Steelers run game has followed the same script. That script has often struggled through the first half. But as the weather gets colder and defenses deal with attrition, the rushing attack has historically picked up.

In 2023, the Steelers’ rushing attack ranked 30th from Week 1 through Week 8 with 558 yards. Then, from Week 9 through the end of the season, they were the NFL’s second-best rushing offense (1,297 yards). This mirrors the 2022 campaign, in which the Steelers were 24th through eight weeks (759) before improving to eighth-best in the second half (1,170).

With new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith calling the shots, the Steelers are already in the top 10 with 138 rushing yards per game. Najee Harris is also coming off three consecutive 100-yard games. I predict they climb even higher and finish the year with one of the top five rushing offenses, proving that Smith was the right hire to play the brand of football this team wants.

Hurdle King @ohthatsNajee22

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— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) 29 October 2024

The defense will finish top five in revenue, but outside the top five in scoring

Entering Week 10, the Steelers boast the NFL’s second-best scoring defense, holding opponents to just 14.9 points per possession. match. They are also tied for the fourth-most turnovers, just four behind the league-leading Green Bay Packers (19).

This is a well-built, well-coached unit full of All-Pro potential. That said, the competition is getting a lot tougher. The best statistical offense they have faced thus far was in Week 1 against the Falcons, who have produced the 12th most points per game. match (23.0). Aside from the abysmal Browns, every one of the Steelers’ second-half opponents is better than that.

Look at the difference.

First Half: Falcons (12th, 23.0 ppg), Cowboys (18th, 20.5 ppg), Colts (19th, 20.1 ppg), Chargers (21st, 19.9 ppg), Jets (23rd, 19.0 ppg), Broncos ( 25th, 8th ppg) , Raiders (26th, 17.9 ppg), Giants (T-31st, 14.8 ppg).

Second half: Ravens (first, 30.8 ppg), Commanders (third, 28.4 ppg), Bengals (sixth, 25.2 ppg), Chiefs (eighth, 24.6 ppg), Eagles (eighth, 24.6 ) and the Browns (T-31st, 14.8 ppg. ).

Cameron Heyward gets his seventh Pro Bowl nod and a rookie gets his first

Steelers defensive captain Cameron Heyward, the reigning Walter Payton Man of the Year, has been a fixture in the community and a consistent force on defense throughout his career. However, it was fair to wonder how close to 100 percent he would be at age 35 and coming off two surgeries.

Well, he has silenced the doubters this season as he has largely returned to his top form. He’s already surpassed last year’s sack total with three on the season, even though he doesn’t play in as many one-dimensional pass-rushing situations and has 12 quarterback hits. That would put him on pace for a career-high 24 QB hits. Additionally, his consistent presence helped the Steelers run defensive plays more consistently throughout the first half. He will be rewarded for his performance with another Pro Bowl nod, which will help him continue to make a case for the Hall of Fame.

I’m also going to predict that Zach Frazier will get a Pro Bowl nod as a rookie, but it could be as a replacement. The AFC has plenty of established centers like Kansas City’s Creed Humphrey, Indianapolis’ Ryan Kelly and Baltimore’s Tyler Linderbaum. It helps somewhat that Kelly is on IR, and Steelers fans love voting for the Pro Bowl, especially a fan favorite like the former WVU center.

Justin Fields will score a game-winning TD or win a key game as a spot starter

The Steelers may have turned to Russell Wilson as QB1, but that’s not the last we’ve heard from Fields. From the moment coach Mike Tomlin named Wilson the preseason starter, he promised Fields would have an opportunity to showcase his talents in certain packages. Especially in the red zone, Fields’ mobility can be a game breaker. I predict the Steelers will call on the 25-year-old QB in a key situation late in a game near the goal line, or Fields will have to start in the spot due to injury and will take full advantage of the opportunity.

George Pickens will finish top 5 in 20-plus yard completions

With his Madden-like catch radius and large frame, Pickens always had the potential to be one of the NFL’s best deep threats. Now he’s in an offense that can lock up with an offensive coordinator who loves to call up play-action shots and a quarterback known for his moonball.

Pickens currently leads the league with eight completions of 30-plus yards and is tied for eighth with 10 completions of 20-plus yards, five behind league leader Justin Jefferson (15). With Wilson now in command as QB1 and deadline addition Mike Williams forcing teams to think twice about doubling Pickens deep, there could be even more opportunities for the third-year receiver to flourish.

TJ Watt will win his first NFL playoff game

In his eighth NFL season, Steelers edge rusher TJ Watt has already begun building a Hall of Fame resume. Six times he has been named to the Pro Bowl, including four times as an All-Pro. In 2021, he won the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year Award. Three times he has led the league in sacks and twice led the league in tackles for loss.

But one thing he hasn’t done? Win a playoff game.

I think that will change this year. With four forced fumbles and 6.5 sacks, Watt is the catalyst for the NFL’s second-best scoring defense. Pretty much since 2019, when the Steelers acquired Minkah Fitzpatrick, they’ve had a near-championship-caliber defense that’s been good enough to push Pittsburgh into the playoffs, but not dominant enough to overcome a dysfunctional offense. With upgrades at offensive coordinator (Smith) and quarterback (Wilson), the Steelers finally have enough firepower offensively to complement their highly compensated defense. This will be the year Tomlin wins his first playoff game since 2016 and Watt finally advances beyond the opening round of the playoffs.

@_TJWatt playing through week 8

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— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) 1 November 2024

Mike Tomlin will win NFL Coach of the Year

Speaking of Tomlin, he is widely respected around the league as one of the NFL’s best coaches. He’s a coach who commands the players’ respect and finds ways to get to .500 no matter who’s playing quarterback.

In his 18th season, Tomlin may be doing his best coaching job yet. There was no guarantee that Wilson or Fields would be the answer behind center. The Steelers played to Fields’ strengths to help him play his best football as a pro, and through two games, Wilson looks even sharper.

Tomlin has navigated what could have been a precarious situation at QB almost flawlessly at this point, especially when he made the unpopular decision to pivot from Fields at 4-2. If the Steelers finish strong, and especially if they can win the division, he has a real chance to be recognized as the NFL’s best coach this year.

Final record prediction

I predict the Steelers will go 6-3 or 5-4 in the second half of the season and finish 11-6 or 12-5. That one-game difference and the head-to-head matchups with the Ravens will determine whether that’s good enough to win the division or whether they’ll begin the playoffs on the road.

(Photo: Chris Unger/Getty Images)