Will Republicans Control the Senate?

Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images

On Tuesday night, Donald Trump decisively won the White House. The rest of his party also did well; Republicans recaptured the Senate and appear to be on track to retain the House of Representatives. They succeeded in knocking off several of their most high-profile Democratic targets, including senators Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jon Tester of Montana, fending off challenges to incumbents in Texas and Florida and an unexpectedly strong bid by an independent candidate in Nebraska.

As of Thursday afternoon, the Senate margin stands at 52-44 in favor of the GOP with three races remaining, all in states won by Trump: Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania. The results of these contests will determine the extent of the party’s power in the upper house. Currently, the party has two moderate senators, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, who have occasionally sided with their Democratic colleagues on specific issues or appointments. If the more conservative wing of the party can increase its numbers in the Senate, it could mean the difference between potentially quick or lengthy confirmation hearings for Trump’s future cabinet appointees or Supreme Court justices. In the event of another impeachment against Trump, the Senate has the sole power to convict and could likely override any Democratic support for his impeachment by a wide margin. The party’s exact tally in the chamber could also help determine who controls the Senate after the 2026 midterms, when Democrats will have few clear pick-up options.

With Democrats leading in two of the three uncalled races so far, Republicans looked set to win a 53-47 majority in the Senate, up from the current balance of power in the chamber. Here’s a look at where the remaining uncalled Senate races stand.

In Arizona, Democratic congressman Ruben Gallego faced Kari Lake, the conspiracy theory-friendly former news anchor and Republican gubernatorial candidate in 2022. As of Thursday morning, Gallego has a two-point lead for the open seat, ahead by at least 50,000 votes with 69 percent of the vote. Political notes that Gallego currently has the advantage and it looks like he will hold his lead through the next few days of counting. Polling of the race had often shown Gallego well ahead of Lake, with analysts at Cook Political Report and Larry Sabatos Crystal ball favor the congressman in their ratings.

On Wednesday, Gallego said he and his team feel “optimistic” about the returns, while Lake encouraged his social media followers on Election Day to join Turning Point USA in helping with the vote. “This race is going to come down to the wire! We need ALL HANDS ON DECK to curate ballots and make sure every Arizonan’s vote counts,” she said.

Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is seeking a second term, facing Republican former U.S. Army Capt. Sam Brown in Nevada. As of Thursday morning, Rosen is ahead of Brown close to to 13,000 votes, which corresponds to less than one percent. Election experts believes the remaining mail-in votes are likely to favor Rosen, which bodes well for her chances. Jon Ralston, editor of Nevada Independent who is known for his deep knowledge of the state, said it simply Thursday. “The rose is going to win,” he said. Although the Associated Press has yet to call the race, Decision Desk HQ currently expecting a Rosen win.

Early Wednesday morning, Rosen projected confidence to his followers on social media. “We feel good about the results we are seeing, but there are still thousands of votes to be counted. Our democracy takes time and I am confident that we will win as more votes come in,” she wrote.

Bob Casey, the three-term Democratic senator, faced a tough re-election bid against Dave McCormick, a former hedge fund executive who previously ran in the Republican primary for Pennsylvania’s second Senate seat. McCormick currently leads Casey by about 30,000 votes, a difference of less than a percentage point. Although there are outstanding ballots to be counted, the path to a Casey victory appeared to have narrowed Thursday morning. Mark Davin Harris, McCormick campaign consultant, said The bulk of the remaining ballots will come from Cambria County and should favor McCormick.

In one declaration released Thursday, the Casey campaign noted the race is now on the threshold of an automatic recount in the state and maintained it believes the senator will ultimately have the votes. The McCormick campaign later issued its own declaration claims victory based on the remaining ballots.

But the Associated Press officially called the race for McCormick on Thursday afternoon, making Casey the fourth Democratic seat to flip this cycle.