Rafael one of just three Cat2+ November hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico » Yale Climate Connections

On By Littum

Hurricane Rafael made landfall in southwestern Cuba about 65 km southwest of Havana at 16.15. EST on Wednesday, October 6 as a Category 3 storm with 115 mph (185 km/h) winds and a central pressure of 956 mb. Rafael was the first major November hurricane to make landfall in Cuba since Hurricane Michelle in 2001.

#Rafael is now the 7th Atlantic hurricane to undergo rapid intensification (RI) this season (with Beryl, Francine, Helene, Kirk, Milton and Oscar). 2:00 PM ET Update from the National Hurricane Center nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh…More on Climate Change + RI climatecentral.org/climate-matt…

— Climate Central (@climatecentral.bsky.social) 2024-11-06T20:34:37.137Z

Traveling northwest, Rafael passed about 30 miles (50 km) west of Havana, where peak sustained winds of 44 mph (71 km/h), gusts to 71 mph (114 km/h), were measured at 3:50 PM EST. Rafael’s strong winds caused major disruptions to Cuba’s power grid, triggering a power failure on the entire island a few days after Cuba’s grid suffered a complete failure 18-22. October.

Rafael’s ascension to major hurricane status on Wednesday brought the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season to 17 named storms, 11 hurricanes, five major hurricanes and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 153 (31% above average). An average season hair 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 117.

A map showing the tracks of November hurricanes in the Gulf of MexicoA map showing the tracks of November hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico
Figure 1. November hurricanes are rare in the Gulf of Mexico; only six have been recorded between 1851-2024 (including Rafael). The strongest was Hurricane Kate, which was a Cat 3 with 120 mph winds and a central pressure of 954 mb in the central Gulf on November 20, 1985. (Image credit: NOAA)

Rafael disturbed by passage over Cuba

Rafael’s two-hour passage over western Cuba before emerging into the Gulf of Mexico disrupted the hurricane’s inner core and downgraded the storm to a Cat 2 with 105 mph winds. Nevertheless, Rafael is one of only six November hurricanes ever recorded in the Gulf (Fig. 1), and one of only three Cat 2+ storms. The others were Cat 2 Hurricane Ida from 2009 and Cat 3 Hurricane Kate from 1985.

At 10 a.m. EST Thursday, November 7, Rafael was located 200 miles (320 km) west-northwest of Havana, Cuba, moving west-northwest at 9 mph (15 km/h) with peak sustained winds of 100 mph (160 km /t) h) and a central pressure of 971 mb. Key West radar showed that Rafael brought a few heavy downpours to the coast of southwest Florida and the Florida Keys and to parts of western Cuba. From By 10 EST Thursday, Rafael had dumped 2-5 inches (50-125 mm) of rain on the Lower Florida Keys. A 24-hour rainfall amount of 6.30 inches (160 mm) was reported at Jaguey Grande, Cuba. Moisture moving north ahead of Rafael brought localized rainfall amounts of up to a foot over South Carolina (see Bluesky post below).

As expected, an excessive rain event associated with moisture from Hurricane Rafael unfolded in parts of Georgia and South Carolina overnight, with localized totals over a foot of rain in South Carolina. Read the post below to see how this relates to a hurricane far away:

— Tomer Burg (@burgwx.bsky.social) 2024-11-07T13:56:32.121Z

Satellite images Thursday showed Rafael was less impressive than Wednesday. One eye was no longer prominent, and the eyewall thunderstorms had warmer cloud tops and were not as symmetrical.

Rafael expected to weaken in the Gulf of Mexico

Steering currents for Rafael favor a mainly westerly track over the next three days, keeping the storm’s core away from land. Rafael is over warm water of 28 degrees Celsius (82 °F) associated with the Loop Current, which extends northward from the western Caribbean into the central Gulf of Mexico. As the hurricane moves west, it will encounter water about 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9°F) cooler. Wind shear is expected to be a moderate 10-20 knots, but Rafael will enter an increasingly dry air environment that should cause significant weakening early next week.

At the beginning of next week, there is considerable model uncertainty on Rafael’s course. The two bold black lines in fig. 2 above shows the European model (left) predicting a west-southwest track toward Mexico, but the GFS model (right) predicts a more northerly track toward Louisiana. About half of the Euro ensemble members and almost all of the GFS members favor the northern track, towards the central US Gulf Coast. This more northerly track would take Rafael into a region of higher wind shear and drier air, resulting in rapid weakening, and none of the ensemble members depicted a U.S. hurricane making landfall.

Map showing track prospects for Rafael. There is still uncertainty about where it will go.Map showing track prospects for Rafael. There is still uncertainty about where it will go.
Figure 2. Track forecasts out to five days for Rafael from 6Z on Thursday, November 7, run by the European ensemble model (left) and the GFS ensemble model (right). Individual forecasts for the ensemble members are the lines color-coded by the wind speed in knots they forecast; red colors correspond to a category 1 hurricane. The time in hours from the initialization time of the model is in gray text. There is great disagreement between the models on Rafael’s long-term track, but good agreement that the hurricane is weakening significantly. (Image credit: weathernerds.org)

Disturbances over the Leeward Islands are unlikely to develop

A tropical disturbance located over the Leeward Islands on Thursday was moving west at about 15 mph, and will bring heavy rain showers of 1-2 inches to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic on Thursday and to the southeastern Bahamas on Friday. A few members of the 6Z Thursday European and GFS model ensembles show the development of this disturbance into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm early next week. In its Tropical Weather Outlook at 7 EDT Thursday, the National Hurricane Center gave this system 2-day and 7-day odds of development of 20%. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Sara.

Bob Henson contributed to this post.

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