When will rain relieve dryness and fire danger in the Northeast?

A new wave of heat and increased fire risk will occur for the Northeast this week, but there will be some opportunities for precipitation to ease dryness and fire potential as we look ahead, AccuWeather say meteorologists.

Weeks with limited to no precipitation and days with temperatures well above the historical average has resulted in dry brush and grass in the Northeast. Fallen leaves from the changing of the seasons have added potential fuels in the region, and several brush fires have broken out in recent days.

“The fire risk will continue until a drenching rain occurs from one area to the next,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek, “On certain days when temperatures rise, humidity levels remain low and winds increase, the fire risk will be significantly elevated.”

Wednesday was one such day in the Northeast, especially from West Virginia and Virginia to Downeast Maine, where temperatures rose well into the 70s to near 80 F, with a gusty south and southwest breeze.

Any existing fire can quickly spread. Burning embers from discarded cigarettes, burning piles of leaves, smoldering campfires, and sparks from outdoor electrical equipment are all means of igniting a fast-moving brush fire, and extreme caution must be exercised.

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Winds kicked up ahead of a cool front carrying some shower activity. But as has often been the case with fronts bringing showers from the Midwest, the moisture with this front began to wane as it approached the central and northern Appalachians Wednesday afternoon. In many cases along the Interstate 95 corridor in the Northeast, little or no rain may fall from the frontage.

“Wednesday may be the last day of the fall that we have highs within a few degrees of 80 until next spring,” Dombek said. “Temperatures will challenge or break daily record highs in a number of locations.”

In the wake of the front, temperatures will trend downward from Thursday to Saturday. For example, temperatures in New York City will top out within a few degrees of 80 on Wednesday, followed by a high near 70 on Thursday, the mid-60s on Friday and then the mid-50s on Saturday.

The lower temperatures will help reduce the threat of fire ignition, but existing fires may continue to burn and spread, especially during windy episodes.

“Looking ahead, there will be some opportunity for precipitation in the coming weeks, but the overall pattern will remain progressive in the sense that any precipitation is likely to be short-lived and likely not excessive,” Dombek said.

A chance for some rain begins this weekend and lasts into early next week. This is the time of arrival due to dry air and high pressure, which had to give way first.

“Should Raphael moves north into the United States, tropical moisture associated with it may even boost the showers of the next one approaching,” Dombek said.

Not enough rain will likely fall to have a significant or long-term impact on the drought, including the shrinking of small streams and the drying up of shallow reservoirs in the region. Subsequent shower events may be enough to quell the wildfire threat until the next round of moisture arrives.

The skiing interests are still unlucky. While the routine historical average temperature trends downward during November, actual temperatures will remain well above the normal decline.

“For much of the Northeast in general, it looks like temperatures throughout November at the end of the month will run about 5 degrees above the historical average in the Northeast,” said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok. “We may not see highs well into the 70s to near 80 again after Wednesday, but it will still be fairly mild for many days given the time of year.”

For an entire month, any temperature deviation from a historical average of 2 degrees or more is considered significant.

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