Why Hurricane Rafael’s path across the Gulf of Mexico is unclear | Hurricane Center

Hurricane Rafael formed over the Caribbean Sea on Tuesday evening and is expected to rip through parts of Cuba on Wednesday as a Category 3 storm after rapidly intensifying over warm waters. But once the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico, hurricane forecasters and models remain divided about what happens next.

Rafael’s track outlook through the Gulf has shifted back and forth over the past few days, sometimes showing the storm eventually heading toward the Texas-Louisiana border, and sometimes pointing as far east as Plaquemines Parish.

The National Hurricane Center’s forecast at 10 Wednesday included perhaps the most dramatic change of course yet, seeing Rafael take a sharp turn toward the Texas-Mexico border shortly after entering the Gulf of Mexico.

still, NHC forecasters said there is “greater than normal uncertainty” regarding Rafael’s intensity later this week, and it is too early to tell what impacts the storm may bring to the Gulf Coast, if any.

“A lot of the disagreement seems to be about how strong a ridge of high pressure will be north of Rafael,” said Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University.

A stronger ridge north of Rafael would steer it to the left over the Gulf of Mexico, a pattern favored by the European hurricane model, Klotzbach said.

That turn would put Rafael on a path through the southern Gulf, helping it avoid some of the wind shear and dry air present in the northern Gulf, conditions that would help weaken the storm.

“This would likely keep Rafael around longer as a stronger storm, but could also mean the storm never makes landfall in the United States,” Klotzbach said.

But another hurricane model, the Global Forecast System, has largely favored a path toward the northern Gulf Coast, with the storm generally targeting Louisiana.

If so, Klotzbach said, the storm would run into strong wind shear and dry air in the northern Gulf, causing it to weaken significantly before making landfall.

Forecasters are still uncertain about Rafael’s track because it’s not entirely clear where the steering ridge will build and set up over the next few days, said NHC hurricane specialist Philippe Papin.

“It’s related to the flow pattern in the United States, where there’s a lot of uncertainty,” Papin said.

Papin said the NHC is requesting additional data from weather service stations across the country this week and is sending a plane on a monitoring mission over the Gulf on Wednesday to collect more data on weather conditions across the United States

Once the additional data is collected and incorporated into the hurricane models, Papin said forecasters hope they will be able to fine-tune Rafael’s track through the Gulf and its potential intensity.

As of Wednesday morning, the ridge was expected to build westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days, likely causing Rafael to turn westward and move across the southern Gulf of Mexico.