Rafael strengthens into a Category 2 hurricane ahead of landfall in Cuba

On November 6, 2024By Littum

Hurricane Rafael continues to intensify and strengthened into a Category 2 storm early Wednesday morning, and forecasters say it could be close to major hurricane strength by the time it makes landfall in Cuba.

MIAMI – Rafael continues to intensify and strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane early Wednesday morning. Forecasters said the late-season storm could approach major hurricane strength by the time it makes landfall in Cuba.

Millions of people along the US Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida are keeping an eye on the hurricane as it batters Cuba with devastating hurricane-force winds, a life-threatening storm surge and devastating coastal surges.

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Video shows winds from Hurricane Rafael beginning to hit the Cayman Islands as the storm approached the area on Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2024.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said that while rapid strengthening is expected, Rafael is expected to weaken briefly as it spins over western Cuba. However, the storm is expected to remain at hurricane strength (74 mph or greater) as it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico.

Rafael has lashed parts of the western Caribbean on its journey towards Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC said hurricane conditions are expected over parts of the Cayman Islands through at least Wednesday morning.

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Workers protect a facility ahead of the arrival of Tropical Storm Rafael in Havana on November 5, 2024. Cuba was preparing for Tropical Storm Rafael, which is expected to make landfall on the island as a hurricane on November 6, adding to the misery caused by a massive blackout and Hurricane Oscar. (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP) (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP via Getty Images)
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People protect the windows of a restaurant with cardboard ahead of Tropical Storm Rafael’s arrival in Havana on November 5, 2024. Cuba was preparing for Tropical Storm Rafael, which is expected to make landfall on the island as a hurricane on November 6, intensifying the misery caused by a massive blackout and Hurricane Oscar. (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP) (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP via Getty Images)
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Fishermen protect their boats ahead of the arrival of Tropical Storm Rafael in Havana on November 5, 2024. Cuba was preparing for Tropical Storm Rafael, which is expected to make landfall on the island as a hurricane on November 6, adding to the misery caused by a massive blackout and Hurricane Oscar. (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP) (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP via Getty Images)
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Fishermen remove their boats from the water ahead of Tropical Storm Rafael’s arrival in Havana on November 5, 2024. Cuba braced for Tropical Storm Rafael, which is expected to make landfall on the island as a hurricane on November 6, compounding the misery caused of a massive blackout and Hurricane Oscar. (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP) (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP via Getty Images)
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Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys through Wednesday evening.

Heavy rain is expected over the western Caribbean through early Thursday, especially across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. The NHC said rainfall totals of 4-7 inches are expected in the Cayman Islands and Cuba, with locally higher amounts of up to 10 inches in the higher ground. This leads to concerns about flooding and mudslides.

In the lower and middle Florida Keys, rainfall totals of 1-3 inches are expected.

Forecasters are also concerned about the potential for a life-threatening storm surge. The NHC said a storm surge of 1-3 feet is expected in the Cayman Islands and 8-12 feet in onshore areas along Cuba’s southern coast, including the Isle of Youth.

A storm surge of 1-3 feet is forecast for the Dry Tortugas and 1-2 feet in the lower Florida Keys.

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Where is Hurricane Rafael?

This graphic shows the status of Hurricane Rafael.
(FOX Weather)

As of the latest NHC advisory, Rafael is less than 100 miles east-southeast of the Isle of Youth and moving northwest at 14 mph.

Rafael has maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. The official forecast calls for the hurricane to strengthen with winds topping out at 110 mph, making it an advanced Category 2 hurricane.

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This graphic shows the current watches and warnings in effect due to Hurricane Rafael.

(FOX Weather)

A hurricane warning remains in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac, as well as the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the lower and middle Florida Keys from Key West to the Channel 5 Bridge, as well as for the Dry Tortugas. The Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus and Ciego de Avila are also included in the tropical storm warning.

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What is the forecast for Hurricane Rafael?

This graphic shows the forecast cone for Hurricane Rafael.

(FOX Weather)

According to the NHC, Rafael is expected to continue moving northwestward for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest in the Gulf of Mexico. On that track, Rafael is expected to move over western Cuba later Wednesday and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday evening.

From there, computer forecast models disagree about where exactly Rafael is headed next.

“It is too early to determine what impact, if any, Rafael may bring to parts of the northern Gulf Coast,” the NHC said. “Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.”