Hurricane Rafael is rapidly intensifying on its way to Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico

CNN
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Hurricane Rafael is rapidly intensifying in the Caribbean and is expected to become a Category 3 hurricane before it hits Cuba on Wednesday.

As of Wednesday morning, Rafael was a Category 2 storm with winds of 110 mph — just 1 mph away from Category 3 status — and 130 miles from Cuba.

The storm’s winds have strengthened by 50 mph in the past 24 hours, an increase well above the 35 mph needed for rapid intensification. Rapid intensification occurs more frequently as the atmosphere and oceans warm due to fossil fuel pollution; Rafael is the ninth storm to rapidly strengthen in the Atlantic this year.

After tearing through the Caribbean, the powerful hurricane is expected to face severe resistance in the Gulf of Mexico and could make landfall as a much weaker storm this weekend anywhere from the US Gulf Coast to northeastern Mexico.

What, if any, threat Rafael poses to the Gulf Coast remains unclear, but will come into better focus and a more certain forecast will be possible once the storm is in the Gulf on Thursday.

Rafael’s threat to Cuba is clear: It is expected to deliver a devastating blow as the first Category 3 hurricane to hit the country since Ian in 2022.

Heavy rain from the hurricane spread over Cuba on Wednesday morning and will flood the country until Thursday. Double-digit rainfall amounts are possible. Tropical storm force gusts were just off the country’s south coast early Wednesday. These winds and stronger hurricane-force winds will spread across Cuba over the next several hours.

Rafael’s strong winds also churned dangerous seas and could produce up to 13 feet of storm surge for Cuba’s southern coast ahead of landfall.

This is the second blow from a hurricane in Cuba in recent weeks. Hurricane Oscar hit Cuba in late October, killing at least 6 people. The country’s power grid is also vulnerable and has collapsed several times, including when Oscar hit in October.

Rafael could become the fifth major hurricane of the season – one that is Category 3 or stronger. It is the strongest hurricane to hit the northwestern Caribbean in November since 2009, according to data from NOAA.

It is expected to become only the fifth hurricane to roam the Gulf of Mexico in November since 1966, according to hurricane expert Michael Lowry.

Rafael’s potential track through the Gulf of Mexico later this week and into the weekend is slowly coming into focus, but it is far from certain.

Rafael could still become the sixth named storm to hit the US this season, but the areas of risk are gradually narrowing.

Earlier this week, forecast models showed very different possible paths for Rafael, but those models are starting to converge on a solution. Instead of a steady northwesterly track across the Gulf and a landfall along the northern Gulf Coast, two major forecast models more consistently show a significant westward shift.

The current forecast from the hurricane center indicates that Rafael could potentially affect anywhere from Louisiana to northeastern Mexico, west of initial forecasts that had Alabama and the Florida Panhandle at risk.

“If future model runs continue to show this trend … further leftward adjustment of the NHC trajectory may be necessary,” the center said Wednesday.

Storm-disturbing upper-level winds are likely to severely worsen Rafael the closer the storm gets to the US coastline, wherever it is. Current forecasts say Rafael will return to tropical storm status by the weekend.

Rafael’s U.S. impacts may be limited, but the same robust tropical moisture fueling Wednesday’s storm will fuel torrential downpours in the Southeast.

A widespread Level 2 of 4 risk of flooding rain area is in place Wednesday for parts of South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama, according to the Weather Prediction Center. Smaller parts of Georgia and South Carolina are under a level 3 of 4 risk of flooding from rainfall.

Outbreaks of rain can cause dangerous flooding, but some areas may be slow to flood given how dry much of the land is after a record October.

CNN’s Brandon Miller, José Álvarez, Patrick Oppmann and Michael Rios contributed to this report.