Poll ‘Nostradamus’ Says Early Return ‘Scary’ For His Prediction Of A Harris Win

Sign up for the daily Inside Washington email for exclusive US coverage and analysis delivered to your inbox

Get our free Inside Washington email

Historian Allan Lichtman has admitted that despite his weeks of backing Kamala Harris to win the presidency, early voter returns were “very scary.”

During an online stream Tuesday night, Lichtman and his son, Sam Lichtman, provided live updates as early counts showed gains for Donald Trump, admitting several times that the initial numbers for the vice president weren’t ideal.

The American political historian is known as the “Nostradamus” of elections because he has successfully predicted the last nine out of 10 presidential elections since 1984. He has consistently backed his original prediction that Harris would win in 2024.

But as more results came in, Lichtman admitted the data was “very scary” and later admitted “it’s not looking good” as they looked into the race for North Carolina.

“I’ve certainly lost hope that she’ll win in a landslide, but I haven’t lost hope that she’ll win,” his son replied.

One of Lichtman’s strongest reactions came around 10:30 p.m. ET after projections showed Trump on track to win 51 percent of the Hispanic vote in Pennsylvania.

“What? It’s not possible,” he exclaimed. “The world is turned upside down, that’s all I can say.” Minutes later, after reviewing the state of the U.S. Senate race, Lichtman added that there was “nothing was positive for Harris yet” — massaging his temples.

His method of predicting the race so accurately in previous election cycles is known as the “Keys to the White House,” a system he devised with Russian academic Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981.

The academic has defended his method, which looks at 13 factors from the president’s party standing in the House of Representatives to the health of the domestic economy, any record of scandals, social unrest or foreign policy disasters during their tenure and comparative charisma. of the two candidates to determine the winner, applying “true” or “false” designations to each category.

During Tuesday’s broadcast, the Lichtmans thanked a number of trolls for donating to their live stream while claiming that “the keys were wrong.”

In an earlier broadcast, Lichtman reassured viewers to “ignore the polls” and keep faith in his method. “The keys to the White House don’t change,” he said.

However, the historian previously revealed that he believed there had been “more election anxiety this year” than ever before and that he had received more “hate” during the 2024 cycle.

“Many people believe that the future of the country is at stake here, and democracy in America may be a thing of the past. I don’t think that’s an illegitimate fear,” he said.

“I’m so worried about the future of our elections, you know, I think I’ve said this before — democracy is precious, but like all precious things, it can be destroyed.”