Editor Jon Ralston’s 2024 Nevada election predictions

I should have made the microphone in 2022.

Picking the winners of the top two races, both of which were agonizingly close, should have been the swan song, the ride off into the sunset of my oracular career. But no, I couldn’t just rest on my laurels by correctly electing Governor Joe Lombardo (1.5 percent win) and Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (under 1 percent win).

So here we go again.

I usually start these prediction columns by reminding you of my historical brilliance—Harry Reid in 2010, Dean Heller in 2012, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden winning in 2016 and 2020, respectively—as if that might stave off the I-told-you- so mafia in muskland and the real world if i’m wrong. Fool’s errand, right?

@Itweetinmypyjamas and @Ihaveendlessmemestoposttomockyou is of course not the target group. In this polarized world we live in, the mindless vitriol gets worse, it becomes impossible to penetrate the silos of The Validation Culture.

But once you start a tradition, it’s hard to end it because you’re worried about being wrong. (What do it feels like?)

I’ve never missed a presidential election in Nevada (I’ve botched run-down voting), but this one is the hardest since I started doing this – more on that below. But that forecast and all the others are based not only on early voting data, but also on historical experience, my sources on both sides, and, well, my gut. I think it is wrong not to also explain a rationale for predictions. So:

Elections, as always, are about many things, but when distilled, they are about math. And the math this year is confusing.

The early voting is different from anyone since this data was kept in such detail and I started to analyze it. Normally, Democrats, driven by the machine that Harry Reid built, erect a firewall in populous Clark County designed as a bulwark against losses in the 15 red counties, with Washoe County often deciding who wins. But this cycle, in which former President Donald Trump and Co. discovered that it might be smart to encourage Republicans to vote early and even per post (the horror!), the GOP poll has been preloaded. The reverse is true and the question is whether Democrats can overcome a 43,000 plus GOP lead as I write this.

I won’t repeat a lot of my analysis of this – you can read it on the blog – which concludes that Trump probably has a 30,000 vote lead right now. But my theory on the matter is that there are still many Clark County mail-in ballots to be counted that favor Democrats, and the GOP’s partial cannibalization of their Election Day vote will propel some Democrats to victory, but may not quite get there with others. Which is which?

I can see from top to bottom that races can go either way, but I have decided to trust the Reid machine, which has not lost in four consecutive presidential cycles and will somehow get enough ballots delivered during the next few days to do what it always has. do. All of this falls apart if the indies don’t go after Vice President Kamala Harris, and if the machine can’t get enough ballots back—not only would Trump win, but there will be down-ballot upsets.

Close races are crazy to try to predict, but you also have to be a little crazy to have covered politics for nearly four decades. Just sing the chorus again and again.

Forward!

—-Chairman: I have called this the Unicorn Election because of the unusual voting patterns. It’s really hard to know what will happen with mail ballots and turnout with so many Republicans voting early. But here’s what I do know: Both sides — at least people who understand the data on both sides — think this will be close. That’s because if past is prologue in postal voting time (last two cycles), there will be tens of thousands of mail ballots between now and Friday (deadline). It’s a simple question: Can the Democrats catch up? It’s really a coin flip and I know people on both sides who have analyzed the data who can’t decide. I’ve been going back and forth in my own head for days, my eyes glazed over with numbers and models and extrapolations. The key to this election has always been which way the non-major party voters break because they have become the plurality in the state. They’re going to make up about 30 percent of the electorate, and if they swing enough toward Harris, she’ll win Nevada. I think they will, and I’ll tell you why: Many people assume that with the GOP catching up with Democrats in voter registration, that the automatic voter registration plan pushed by Democrats, which automatically registers people as nonpartisan (unless they vote a party ) at the DMV had been a failure for the party. But I don’t think so. There are many non-partisans who are closet Democrats who were intentionally registered by Democrat-aligned groups as non-partisan. The machine knows who they are and will make them vote. That will be just enough to overcome the Republican lead – along with women motivated by abortion and crossover votes this issue will also cause. I know some may think this reflects my well-known disdain for Trump, heart over data. But it is not like that. I have often predicted against my own preferences; history does not lie. I just have a feeling she’ll catch up here, but I also think – and remember this – it won’t be clear who won on election night here, block the nagging neighbors of election denial. It will be very, very close. Prediction: Harris, 48.5 percent; Trump 48.2 percent; other and none of these candidates, 3.3 per cent.

—-Senate: I don’t think anyone has run a better race than Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) has this cycle. It has been almost flawless. She amassed a fortune and then spent it early after Sam Brown won the primary, beating him on abortion and his, ahem, progressive positions. He could never gain a foothold and was reduced to bowing down to Trump and the right wing. It was almost sad for a guy with a remarkable story of survival and commitment to continue his life. The truth is, though, that national Republicans settled on Brown, a relatively recent Texas transplant who has never won a race, because the GOP bench here is so thin. He was never in the top tier of GOP hopefuls, who were more focused on Montana and Ohio. I never believed the polls that showed Rosen in double digits or high single digits. That’s just not how we roll in Nevada in Senate races. But she will win, and this one may be over by election night. Forecast: Rosen, 50 percent; Brown, 45 percent; others and none of the above, 5 per cent.

—-House: The three Democratic congressional seats in the South should not be close. Republicans, their bench decimated by Democrats over many cycles, had to make do with second-rate (generous?) candidates who couldn’t come close to fundraising the incumbents. Rep. Dina Titus, Steven Horsford and Susie Lee winbut their race may be closer than expected. They all won in 2022, an off year when they could have been vulnerable. Mark Robertson didn’t do much against Titus two years ago, losing by 6 percentage points; Lee won by only 4 percentage points in 2022, and Drew Johnson was a surprise primary winner this year and was not considered a serious candidate by local or national Republicans; Horsford won by 4 percentage points in 2022 over a poor candidate, and the ever-ambitious and party-switching John Lee didn’t spend much of this cycle trying to defeat him. Democrats have small ballots in each of the districts — Susie Lee’s is a near tie — but the remaining Clark votes should be heavily Democratic and create some distance. If any of them end up being within 5 percentage points, as seems possible, they will be targeted in 2026. Rep. Mark Amodei should win fairly easily over self-funding non-partisan Greg Kidd.

—- Legislator: The conventional wisdom all year has been that the state Senate would achieve a supermajority, while the Assembly was 50-50 going that way. This is mainly structural (hello, gerrymandering) and has less to do with the candidates because Gov. Joe Lombardo’s team recruited some quality hopefuls. In the state Senate, Democrats need to pick up a seat, and they will almost certainly take the outgoing GOP Senate. Heidi Seevers O’Gara, as Democrats hold a large lead (5 percent) and turnout is unlikely to improve . Then I say Democratic assemblywoman Angie Taylor defeats Michael Ginsburg. Democrats were hoping to defeat GOP Sen. Carrie Buck, whose unhinged social media rants make her seem like a cute version of Marjorie Taylor Greene. But Buck will win after building a 5 percent lead over Jennifer Atlas. So the supermajority comes down to Democratic Senator Dallas Harris and Republican Lori Rogich, a quality candidate — the Democratic ticket is pretty small, but I think Harris holds firm as more Democratic votes pour in. So 13-8 becomes 14-7. In the Assembly, Team Lombardo must ensure that all Republicans keep their seats and just flip one to prevent a supermajority there. Unlike many insiders, I still think they have a chance at a supermajority, depending on how big the mail drop is over the next few days. But at the end of the day I think the Dems can’t hold it and 28-14 becomes 25-17with an incumbent or two losing their seats.

—-Miscellaneous: i think Shelley Berkley will be the next mayor of Las Vegasbut it may be closer than people think – apparently Victoria Seaman goes to every event every day. But even if it’s a nonpartisan race, there are too many Democrats who like Berkley and don’t like Seaman in a Democratic town. All ballot questions are passed except question 3which is the ranked choice of ballot/open primary election issues. Conventional wisdom says it should pass since proponents have spent a fortune. But something tells me they have oversold and enemies have done enough to create fear of change and chaos. (The pro-Q3 ads that make it seem like veterans are disenfranchised may be the most irredeemable ad I’ve seen in a long time. But maybe it will be rewarded).

Feel free to congratulate me on my choices if I’m right or pin me if I’m wrong – it happens. But not on Twitter, because like most people who want to keep their sanity, I won’t look.

Jon Ralston is managing director and editor of The Indy.