Who to follow if you want to be the first to know the election winner in 2024

TV networks carefully print choices. You’ll have to go online tonight if you want to get a feel for the result before the nation’s polling booths feel comfortable calling what they see.

Here are some names to follow to find out the result first.

Nate Cohn.election observers‘ election point man may or may not run the outlet’s famous Needle: a predictive guide to who will each swing state.

It was The Needle that, in one of the big moments of the 2020 election, suddenly showed Biden ahead in Georgia after temporarily going offline. That moment, tweeted by Cohn with a Twin Peaks reference, heralded Trump’s defeat.

A strike by the company’s Tech Guild has put The Needle at risk – to the dismay of chirpy election watchersone. The best way to follow Cohn, who will run the model on his own computer, if not for public consumption, will be via New York Times.

Nate Silver. The nationally recognized election analyst whose model has declared the race a coin flip will run his own election night model d. Silver Bulletinhis Substack. You can also find him on Twitter, where he’s sure to be a prominent presence tonight.

Dave Wasserman. Wasserman, who works for the Cook Political Report, is famous for calling elections after declaring that he has “seen enough.” Trust his reading of the data, though you’ll have to find it via NBC News as he works for their decision writing desk tonight.

G. Elliott Morris. Morris replaced Silver at FiveThirtyEight, his old election site. Follow him on Twitter.

Dan Pfeiffer. We will get results from Florida early. Here’s what Pfeiffer, the former Obama staffer, wants to see there: “Osceola County, which is near Orlando, is more than half Latino and a third of the population is Puerto Rican. If Harris overperforms in Osceola, it could be first evidence of backlash to the offensive joke told at the Trump rally. Such a backlash would be a big deal in Pennsylvania, where there are more than 300,000 eligible voters.”

Jon Ralston. Ralston is yours guide to Nevada’s 6 electoral votes. He has predicted a narrow Harris victory here. Following him in 2020 gave you confidence that Biden had enough to beat Trump.

Conor Sen. Sen served as a good guide to why Biden was ahead in 2020 despite disappointing early data. He has outlined the counties to see in Georgia to see how margins change compared to 2020.

Adam Carlson. Carlson has aggregated the subgroups in national opinion polls. He is skeptical, they are accurate. If they are, Trump probably won.