Is Trump or Harris in the lead?

On By Littum

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Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a statistical tie as of late Forbes/HarrisX National Poll released late Monday.

Harris has a razor-thin 49%-48% lead over Trump among the 4,520 registered voters polled, with 3% favoring third-party candidates. When respondents were asked to choose only between Harris and Trump, the vice president’s lead grew slightly to 49%-47%, with 4% undecided.

The vote was taken online between October 30 and November 1 and has a margin of error of ±1%.

Among respondents who said they had already cast their ballots, Harris led Trump 56-40%, according to the poll.

“Price rises/inflation” was among the most important issues for respondents, with 36% of respondents saying it was top of mind. Immigration and the economy followed with 32% and 31% of respondents respectively, placing them at the top of their list. Abortion came in as fourth-most important, with 16% of respondents saying it was one of their biggest problems.

“The race will come down to turnout tomorrow, especially for Trump,” Dritan Nesho, managing director and head research at HarrisX, a research firm with no ties to Kamala Harris, told Forbes. “Trump has historically outperformed the polls in both 2016 and 2020 because of his ability to get low-probability voters to show up and win over last-minute swing voters.”

Things to remember when voting

The margin of error describes how precisely we can count on the survey results being representative of the entire population.

When a candidate’s lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to the Pew Research Center.

Pew has too found that the majority of polls have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, in which Trump’s performance was significantly underestimated.

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