The Rafael track shows that the hurricane season can have rare landfall in November

On By Littum

Tropical Storm Rafael formed in the Caribbean on Monday afternoon and is expected to undergo “rapid intensification”. National Hurricane Center says. It is set to become a hurricane as it moves toward the Gulf of Mexico, a rarity in November. Wind shear, dry air and slightly cooler water temperatures will weaken it as it approaches the northern Gulf at the end of the week.

Rafael is the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. An average year sees 14 storms.

Named storms in November

Eight named storms have developed in November since 2013. Of those eight, only four saw landfalls, and only two made landfall in the United States.

How rare are hurricanes to make landfall in November in the US?

Of the 287 hurricanes since 1851 that made landfall on the US mainland in NOAA’s databaseonly four did so in November. Three went ashore in Florida and one in North Carolina.

Where do storms typically occur in November?

Most storms form in the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico and move north and northeast, as an eastward moving trough usually carries the storm away. Depending on the circumstances, this setup often brings storms close to the Florida peninsula. This is also the situation in October, although the number of storms is significantly lower in November.

Tropical systems become less frequent in November due to less favorable atmospheric conditions. In addition, developing storms find it more challenging to make landfall in the United States because cold fronts become more common during this time. These cold fronts can steer storms away from the East Coast or keep them confined to the Caribbean.

How many storms have formed this season?

There have been 17 named storms this hurricane season. Ten developed into hurricanes, and three of them became major hurricanes

Where is Rafael?

Although November 30 marks the official end of hurricane season, we may not be done yet. This season may rank “among the busiest ever,” according to NOAA’s August forecast. Tropical activity typically subsides after mid-October, but storms may continue to develop into December this year.

Cast: Gabe Hauari and Doyle Rice

Source: USA TODAY Network Reporting and Research; NOAA