How NPR will report election results for 2024: NPR

People cast their personal early ballots for the 2024 general election at a polling place in Ann Arbor, Mich., on Thursday.

Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images

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Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images

For more 2024 election coverage from the NPR network, go to our live updates page.

Voters have voted, ballots will be counted and soon the results will start coming. But how will races are called on election night? Finding a winner in one of the thousands of races across the United States, from ballots on issues like abortion rights and voting rights, to the presidential election and every congressional, state and local race in between, is a big job. That’s why NPR partners with The Associated Press — and has for many years — to make sure races are called accurately.

The Associated Press has been calling races for a long time. The organization’s decision desk has been calling races since 1848, and even now, more than 170 years later, it keeps those calls pretty simple. Here is as AP explains its race-calling process:

Race calls are based on provable facts, primarily from the AP’s vote count compiled from state and local elections offices around the country.

As more and more ballots are tabulated from election night, AP will monitor the incoming vote at the county level and analyze who is in the lead and which precincts the votes are coming from.

At the same time, AP tries throughout the night to determine how many ballots are uncounted and from which areas.

Once AP has an idea of ​​how many ballots are outstanding compared to how many have been counted, it can begin to tabulate the probability of a particular winner winning a particular contest based on a bunch of different factors: where the outstanding ballots are coming from how the composition of these communities looks like, and even how the individual chose to vote.

For NPR, when the AP calls a race, we’ll alert our broadcast and digital audiences on our special coverage and live blog and make sure our hundreds of member stations have access to that information as well. We will use AP’s data to populate our election results pages so viewers can follow along in real time.

How does AP call races when not all votes have been counted?

Sometimes races can be called without all – or even most – of the votes being counted. How is that possible? The Associated Press explains that it uses the same calculation of ballots, external factors and other data to inform its decisions.

In almost all cases, races can be called well before 100% of the votes have been counted. The AP’s team of election reporters and analysts will call a race as soon as a clear winner can be found. It may sound obvious, but it is the guiding principle that drives the organization’s election campaign process.

The AP’s race calls are not predictions and are not based on speculation. They are statements based on an analysis of polling results and other election data that one candidate has emerged as the winner and that no other candidate in the race will be able to overtake the winner when all the votes are counted.

Sounds simple, right? AP will not call races until “a clear winner can be determined.” But it doesn’t always require all votes for every area for every race. Sometimes it’s all about the math: Can this candidate even win with the outstanding votes in the places where they haven’t been counted yet? And that raises another, really important point. AP – and therefore NPR – will not project races. The organization will wait until it has certainty to call races, which is why its race calls are trusted by hundreds of news organizations, including NPR. Because AP waits until there is bail, even if that means waiting just a little longer be sure.

On an ethical note, NPR will not make racial calls just because a candidate declares victory, nor will NPR use a concession speech or statement solely to follow a racial call. It applies Also Associated Press:

AP race calls are never made based on lobbying by campaigns or political parties or announcements by other news organizations or on candidates’ victory speeches. While it will never call a winner based on a concession speech, in some cases a concession is the final piece of the puzzle to confirm that there will be no recount in a close race.

While election night is the start of these race calls, it likely won’t be the end. Races will continue to be offered until a winner can be determined in the presidential election, and race calls will be tabulated to determine the balance of power in the Senate and House of Representatives. NPR will cover all major race calls and provide ongoing on-air and online coverage of how the 2024 election shakes out.