How do exit polls work? Understanding of the voter data collection system

On Election Day, when votes are being counted and news organizations await reportable results and race forecasts, exit polls are a critical tool that provides early insight into who is voting and what motivates their choices.

An exit poll is a survey of voters taken as they leave (or leave) their polling place. It is the only national survey of known voters in the country. It allows news organizations, researchers and voters to understand what is happening in an election as the results come in.

Here’s how exit polls work, where they’re conducted, and how NBC News will use the exit poll results on election night and the days after.

Who performs the exit measurement?

Since 2003, Edison Research, a firm that specializes in collecting election data, has conducted exit polls on behalf of the National Election Pool. NEP is a consortium of media networks – ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC News – pooling resources for one unified vote counting and exit poll operation. NBC News independently analyzes and reports on the results of the poll.

What questions are asked?

The exit poll asks voters which candidates they supported for president and in other races. But a number of other attitudinal and issue-based questions are usually included, such as: “What is the most important issue for your vote?” The other key component of an exit poll is asking about a voter’s demographics, such as age, gender, race, education. These types of questions help illustrate how different groups voted and what mattered to them, and are also used to weight the exit poll – that is, to ensure that the exit poll accurately reflects the demographic makeup of the electorate as well as the choice. results.

Members of each news organization in the NEP jointly decide in which states exit polls will be conducted (in addition to the national exit poll survey), and they work together to decide which questions should be included on the national and state surveys. The exit poll questionnaires include around 25 questions and take around 5 minutes to complete.

How are exit polls conducted?

Voting is then conducted in a random selection of select polling stations across the country and in states with their own ballots (more on that later). At least one interviewer is assigned to each polling station on election day. This year, interviewers will be stationed at 600 polling stations throughout the country, where they each follow local rules about where they may stand in relation to the polling station. The interview is self-administered, which means that the respondent completes the survey himself. Then the interviewers call in their results throughout the day and the results are reported to news organizations.

What about state exit polls?

In addition to a national exit poll, which captures voters across the country, there are exit polls specific to states that are critical to winning the presidency or include key down-ballot races, such as Senate or governor. This year, NBC News will have coverage of state exit polls in Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. Voting will be conducted at 40 polling stations in each state.

How does the exit poll capture the growing percentage of people who vote early or per mail?

The exit poll supplements in-person Election Day interviews by contacting early voters through a telephone poll of people on voter rolls in all 50 states, as well as by collecting interviews during early in-person voting periods.

This year, the exit poll is conducting interviews at early voting locations in Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio. All voters in a given state, regardless of whether they vote early or on Election Day, are asked the same questions.

Are exit polls anonymous?

Yes. In person, voters are given a piece of paper and pencil to fill out a paper questionnaire, and they answer anonymously. When they are done, they put their folded questionnaire in a box, just like casting a vote. Telephone interviews do not store any personal information about the voter who was interviewed.

How many people are interviewed?

The national exit poll will include approximately 20,000 interviews in total, including in person on election day, in person during early voting and by telephone to capture other early voters, including those who cast their ballots by mail. For each state exit poll in Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin, there will be sample sizes of 1,500 to 2,500 respondents per poll. state.

How do we use exit polls?

The NBC News Decision Desk uses some exit poll data to help project election results. However, exit poll is primarily used as a reporting tool on election night.

The data gives viewers and readers insight into what issues motivate voters, how they feel about the country and who they are. It’s the nation’s first look at what voters look like and how voters feel about the election, the candidates and their choices.

What data do news organizations report and when?

Participants in the NEP do not report any voting results until 5 p.m. ET on Election Day, and no poll results that could be indicative of the outcome of a race are reported until after all polls are scheduled to close in a state. As election night progresses and on-site interviewers call in more exit poll results, the data is updated and reweighted in real time.