Keys to a fantasy football victory in Week 9

On By Littum

Dobbins has failed to top 60 rushing yards in four of his last five games. He has struggled to break tackles and create explosive plays since his first two games of the season. One of those games was against the Panthers, who we now know are one of the worst run defenses in the leagues. Dobbins is now 52nd in broken tackle rate and only 33rd in yards per carry. according to Player Profiles.

The recent run of poor play can only get worse this week. Dobbins will face the Browns on the road. Cleveland has the No. 1 ranked run defense in the NFL according to PFF. It’s a lopsided spot for Dobbins, who looks like a touchdown-or-bust candidate for Week 9.

If you have another option, I would consider starting them.

All the attention in the Browns’ WR room is on Cedric Tillman and for good reason. Tillman has posted 15 catches for 180 yards and two touchdowns the last two weeks without Amari Cooper. The hype is justified, but that hype allows Elijah Moore’s Week 8 usage to fly under the radar.

In Week 8, Moore posted a team-high 30% target percentage and turned this into a solid day with eight catches for 85 yards. Moore is a talented receiver who has shown pockets of success in his career when paired with skilled quarterback play. We saw that in Week 8 when Jameis Winston completed 66% of his passes for 334 yards and three touchdowns. Winston often leaned on Moore when it came to third down and pressure situations. This is a good indicator that Winston trusts Moore. You can pick up and play Moore this week against the Chargers, who allowed 107 yards to Chris Olave last week.

Downs has been the Colts’ best receiver this season. He leads the team with a 26% completion percentage and has finished as a top-20 receiver in four of his six starts. Downs is on the rise because the Colts made the move to sit QB Anthony Richardson and start veteran Joe Flacco. This is an immediate upgrade to the entire passing attack as Richardson completed 50% of his passes in the league and only 25% of his deep attempts.

In three starts with Joe Flacco, Downs has averaged 10 targets per game. game and an average fantasy finish of WR13. This means that Downs has been a borderline fantasy WR1 with Flacco as his QB. Downs takes on the Vikings this week, who have struggled on defense the past two games. Minnesota allowed 280 yards and two touchdowns to Jared Goff in Week 7 as he completed 88% of his passes. In Week 8, the Vikings gave up 279 yards and four touchdowns to Matthew Stafford. Start Downs with confidence this week.

Blomster comes off a strong bounce-back performance. In Week 8, he produced 115 yards on seven receptions. Flowers posted a season-high 36% field goal percentage in this game, and he has now seen a team-high 27% of Ravens field goals this season. All of this is good news as Flowers continues to break out in his second year. But on Tuesday, Flowers’ fantasy stock took a big hit.

The Ravens traded for Diontae Johnson. Johnson is an elite goaltender who knows how to separate and get open. He has earned a 26% field goal percentage since entering the NFL for a total of 697 career field goals. This ranks sixth in the NFL since 2019, according to Statmuse. Johnson will replace Nelson Agholor in the Ravens offense. Agholor has scored just 10% of the team’s goals this season. The addition of Johnson will likely reduce Flowers’ target share, reducing his weekly fantasy value. Blomster is on the decline despite his strong start to the season.

Kraft has been a pleasant surprise in fantasy football this season. He was a relative unknown entering 2024. Kraft had offseason surgery and appeared to be behind TE Luke Musgrave on the depth chart. But it was clear from Week 1 that Kraft was the guy in this TE space as he played 96% of the Packers’ snaps. He currently ranks seventh in TE points per game. game this season, but his production is not sustainable. Kraft has a 20% touchdown rate this season. That means 20% of his receptions have gone for touchdowns, which is about four times the NFL average.

Over the past three games, the Packers have had all of their WRs back from injury and/or suspension. During that time, Kraft has accounted for just 11% of the team’s targets, which ranks sixth behind RB Josh Jacobs and WR4 Dontayvion Wicks. His role isn’t great right now, and it’s been supported by touchdowns. According to Player ProfilesKraft ranks 20th in TE projected fantasy points based on his usage. This puts him in line around Jonnu Smith and Tyler Conklin on the season. Right now is the time to sell high. Try to trade him for someone like TJ Hockenson or Bucky Irving if you can.

Now is the perfect time to buy low on Mike Evans. Much was made this past week about which Bucs receiver would fill in and replace Evans and Chris Godwin in Week 8. But unfortunately, the answer was neither. Rookie Jalen McMillan led the receivers with seven targets, but was only able to produce 35 scoreless yards. The Bucs relied on TE Cade Otton and their RBs in the passing game instead of the replacement WRs. There is a good chance it will continue for the next few weeks.

Evans is a big buy-low right now as he recovers from a hamstring injury. He has finished as a top-10 receiver in three of his five completed games this season. Evans has posted a solid 23% goal share over these five completed games and when he returns, he will no longer have to compete with Chris Godwin for goals. But there’s even more good news because Evans has a great fantasy playoff schedule. He will face the Cowboys and Panthers; both teams rank among the top five in yards per carry. passing games allowed this season according to NFL Pro. Trade someone like JK Dobbins or Darnell Mooney for Evans if you can.

Brown has been on the rise this past month in the Bengals’ offense. Over his last three games, he leads the Bengals backfield with a 56% snap percentage and has earned 60% of the rushing attempts according to Fantasy Life. In Week 8, Brown earned a season-high 67% of the team’s carries, turning this into a 14-touch game for 34 yards and a touchdown. Brown has now scored 10+ points in four of his last five games with three top-20 finishes during that stretch, and now, Zack Moss has been banned with a neck injury.

This week, Brown is in a great spot. He is a home favorite with seven points against the Raiders. This sets up Brown to earn plenty of touches in the second half. Las Vegas ranks dead last in tackles this season, according to PFF. This makes them a great matchup for any running back, but it’s even better for Brown because he’s breaking tackles at a top-10 rate this season. Make sure Brown is in your lineup this week and consider trading for him if he’s not already on your roster.

The advice was originally included before Brian Robinson Jr. was ruled inactive Sunday morning due to a hamstring injury.

Robinson Jr. has been great for fantasy managers this season. He has scored 10+ fantasy points in six of seven games this year and has even played through injuries in several games. He has proven to be someone you can trust and his role has been fantastic this year. Robinson is averaging over 16 carries per game and ranks top 10 in red-zone touches this year. The role is strong and so is his effectiveness. Robinson currently ranks eighth in EPA among all RBs, and he continues to break tackles at an above-average rate.

This week, Robinson takes on a division rival in the Giants. New York is allowing the most rushing yards per game this season and is coming off a week in which they allowed 131 total yards to Najee Harris. Start Robinson with confidence this week.