DC winter storm threats: Snow chances, arctic blast in 2025

WASHINGTON – The DC area starts 2025 with two chances for wintry weather, as a cold front moves in over New Year’s Eve and another storm system moves into the area the first weekend of the year.

A look back at 2024

It started with a January that brought us about 8″ of snow in about five days, but was then followed by the third warmest spring on record for the city. This was then followed by the third warmest summer on record for our region, and then the second warmest fall on record.This was coupled with the longest stretch of dry weather in DC history, with 38 consecutive days without precipitation in DC between early October and mid-November.

Overall, even with the colder-than-usual December to close out the year, 2024 is still expected to go down in the books as the warmest year in DC history overall.

Looking forward to 2025

So what do we have to look forward to as we head into 2025?

Well, one thing you’ll notice from many weathermen is that guarantees are hard to come by. There are a lot chance for this or chance for it. So when a weather person offers a guarantee, you can bet they’re pretty confident in what they’re predicting.

The guarantee I can give is that the first half of January (at least) will be cold and there will probably be an outbreak of strong cold later next week.

That’s about where the warranties end, at least for now. But of course, when you hear about a prolonged cold event in the month of January, one question has to pop into your mind…is there going to be snow?

While we can’t offer any guarantees when it comes to snow, we can tell you that this looks to be one of the better weather patterns in recent years to get some snow falling in the DC region.

31 December 2024 – 1 January 2025

The first time period we see is actually right around the corner, New Year’s Eve!

As we prepare to bring in 2025, a weak storm will pass to our northwest. For the immediate DC region, this storm will likely be no more than a few rain showers as temperatures will be too mild. It could bring several inches of snowfall to our mountain zones to the west, as well as to the Great Lakes and the interior Northeast.

This storm will usher in the brief mild wave we wrapped up December on and bring colder temperatures into the first day of the new year.

5.-6. January 2025

The second system we see in this active pattern will make landfall in the Pacific Northwest sometime around Friday, January 3rd and push east toward our region by the 5th-6th. January. This storm is a difficult one. We are going to be in a cold pattern early, but the initial cold air is not as strong as the one that arrives later next week. The pattern is one that also suggests the storm would be more favored to pass just northwest of the DC region and cut up the Appalachians.

While these typically favor rain, there will be a cold air mass in place, so depending on the timing of the system, it suggests that this second one could end up being more of a mixed bag of precipitation, perhaps a transition from snow to rain, or some kind of wintery mixed threat. Still, if the cold digs in a little harder than expected and blocking patterns establish a little sooner than expected, this wave could sneak to our south and end up with more of a snowmaker than expected.

This is certainly a period we will be watching closely and one where we will have to flesh out the details as we get into later this week.

7-11 January 2025

Whichever path the second storm ends up taking, even colder air will spill into the mid-Atlantic region behind it. This could set the stage for the third wave, which initial models suggest may come our way sometime between 7-11. January.

With the colder air anchored farther south, and strong model support for Canadian and Arctic atmospheric blocking patterns to adjust in a way that captures it there, a third system could develop near the Gulf of Mexico and push northward up the East Coast. Should all of these things happen, this third wave would be the storm most likely to bring us a more impactful snowfall.

Now, of course, we’re making predictions for something that’s about a week and a half away, but this article wouldn’t mention it if there wasn’t strong ensemble support for the potential for a storm in this time frame.

It’s a period worth watching, and one that could end up being our best shot at meaningful winter weather all this winter. We will continue to update you on this time period as the models get a better handle on what this period may bring over the next week or so.

What is a cross-polar current?

Behind this third wave, it is quite possible that the coldest air of the entire winter season will pour into the eastern half of the country. There is strong model support for what we call cross-polar flow where air is transported from Siberia over the polar region and right into the contiguous states. The strongest cold appears to be most likely between January 10th and 14th … with persistent cold appearing to be beyond this period, possibly through the Martin Luther King Jr. the holiday weekend and inauguration day.

The FOX 5 Weather Team will continue to closely monitor these threats as we head into the new year. Download FOX Local for a live update from the FOX 5 Weather Team Thursday at 19:30 and for live weather alerts throughout the winter. This is how you do it.

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