Indiana football vs Purdue preview, Old Oaken Bucket prediction

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BLOOMINGTON — IU football and Purdue are headed in opposite directions.

The Hoosiers (10-1, 7-1 Big Ten) are in the middle of the playoff race, while the Boilermakers (1-10, 0-8) are one loss away from going winless in the conference for just the second time in three decades.

This season will be the largest margin of victory between the in-state rivals — they both started playing football in the 1800s — regardless of the outcome Saturday.

Indiana coach Curt Cignetti has every reason to add insult to injury by running up the score this weekend.

Except for some wild events in Big Ten this weekend this will be Hoosiers last shot at impressing College football playoff committee, and they’ll want to show they’ve turned the page with shaky performances against Michigan and Ohio State.

Indiana also wants the final score to be as one-sided as the games Purdue played against the rest of the Big Ten playoff contenders. The Boilermakers are one of just two teams (Michigan State) that will have played Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana this season.

The Boilermakers were outscored by a combined score of 119-10 in the first three games.

IU football vs. Purdue: Channel, betting odds

  • When: Saturday, November 30 at 7 p.m
  • Where: Memorial Stadium (52,626), Bloomington, Indiana
  • TV: FS1
  • Line: Indiana -29
  • Series: Purdue leads 77-42-6
  • Last meeting: Purdue def. Indiana, 35-31, on November 25, 2023

IU football players to watch vs Purdue

Indiana’s offensive line: Indiana’s offensive line is under scrutiny as it tries to turn the page from its worst performance of the season. The Hoosiers gave up five sacks to Ohio State, and much of that pressure came through during the second quarter.

The offense never recovered after that.

While Indiana has faced more talented defensive fronts in recent weeks, Cignetti said the offensive line’s problems are mostly related to “missed assignments and poor technique,” which he described as “day one” kind of mental mistakes. He said the offense has no chance to get into a rhythm like it had earlier this year unless those issues are cleaned up.

The Hoosiers lost a key piece up front when starting left guard Drew Evans suffered a season-ending Achilles injury leading up to the Michigan game, but his replacement, Tyler Stephens, has been practicing with the first-team offense for nearly four weeks.

They shouldn’t go back as they get more training time together.

Mikail Kamara, DE: Kamara was held without a single quarterback pressure against Ohio State.

It was only the third time that has happened in his career (34 games).

Kamara led the FBS in quarterback pressures for most of November thanks to a six-game stretch of five or more pressures, but dropped to third after the loss. That won’t bother him as much as the fact that Ohio State quarterback Will Howard had a far too easy time getting the ball downfield last weekend.

The former James Madison defensive end will be looking for a bounce-back performance against an offensive line that has given up 30 sacks this season and 84 quarterback pressures, per Pro Football Focus. By comparison, IU’s starting offensive line has given up 46 quarterback pressures.

Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton, RB: Indiana’s starting running back duo was able to alleviate some of the pass protection issues by breaking off some explosive runs early in the game on Saturday.

The Hoosiers’ rushing attack has been dormant in recent weeks except for a brief stretch in the fourth quarter against Ohio State when the game was already out of reach.

Ellison told reporters after beating Nebraska that the running game provided an important spark to the offense. The Cornhuskers hadn’t allowed a run of 30 yards or more or a rushing touchdown before coming to Bloomington. The Wake Forest transfer did both on IU’s opening possession, and the Hoosiers went on to put up 215 rushing yards (6.5 yards per carry).

That’s the kind of tone-setter the running backs need to provide on Saturday against Purdue.

IU Football: Week 14 Odds and Ends

To the left of the label: Indiana punter James Evans fumbled Caleb Downs’ punt return touchdown that helped OSU put the game away. The punter was supposed to kick the ball to the right side of the pitch but it ended up on the opposite touchline and Downs broke off a huge return. He also lost a well-placed snap that resulted in a turnover on downs. Cignetti would like to see a cleaner operation Saturday against a Purdue team that is averaging just 6.9 yards per carry. return.

Max Protection: Purdue’s top offensive weapon is 6-4, 240-pound tight end Max Klare. He leads the team in catches (46), yards (649) and touchdowns (four). He has been particularly effective over the team’s last two games with 14 catches for 174 yards and two scores. He is a talented athlete who considered pursuing a collegiate career in football and baseballand even played quarterback in high school. The best tight end IU has faced this season was Michigan’s Colston Loveland, who the Hoosiers mostly kept in check.

Third rail: Purdue’s third-down defense is one of the worst in the country. The Boilermakers are allowing opposing teams to convert 48.2% of their third down attempts. That’s second-worst among power four teams (UCLA is the only team worse) and 130th out of 134 FBS teams. Indiana has converted on 48.4% of its third-down attempts this season, but the Hoosiers have faced an increasing number of third-and-long situations the last two games. Their average distance to go on third down against Michigan was 8.8 yards and against Ohio State it was 7.2 yards.

IU football stats of the week

8.9: There are only two teams in the FBS giving up more passing yards per game. attempts (8.9) than Purdue. Part of the reason for that is because the Boilermakers are giving up a ton of explosive plays — they’ve given up 41 completions of 20 yards or more — while allowing opposing offenses to complete 65% of their pass attempts.

IU Football Quote of the Week

“It’s a well-oiled machine,” Purdue coach Ryan Walters said of IU’s success

Prediction: Indiana 49, Purdue 10

relentless pressure.

Ohio State showed that’s the best way to topple IU, but Purdue just doesn’t have the talent to emulate that game plan.

The Boilermakers might have had a better shot had Nic Scourton not been transferred. He was a game wrecker in last year’s Old Oaken Bucket game — he had six quarterback pressures and two sacks — but ended up transferring to Texas A&M, and his departure highlights the difference between the teams.

Purdue lost their hitters during the season, while IU added one (or more) at almost every position.

The fact that there will be a sellout crowd at Memorial Stadium hungry to push the Hoosiers over the finish line into the College Football Playoff only adds to their favor. The only real question coming out of the break should be how many points Cignetti wants to score before going to the bench.

Michael Niziolek is an Indiana reporter for The Bloomington Herald-Times. You can follow him on X @michaelniziolek and read his full coverage by clicking here.