‘Sonic Hedgehog 3’ tracking opens ahead of ‘Mufasa: The Lion King’

Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King have worked for it.

As it stands now, Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 expects to open to $55 million the weekend of 20-22. December compared to $50 million for Mufasa: The Lion Kingaccording to sources with access to data from leading research firm National Research Group.

It would be a pity if Sonic succeeded in beating Mufasaconsidering that the summer 2019 remake The Lion King opened to a stunning $191.8 million domestically on its way to earning $1.7 billion globally. Like that movie, Mufasa is a live-action film that relies heavily on photorealistic imagery.

Many doubted whether the 2019 film, directed by Jon Favreau, would work, similar to the conversation now swirling about Mufasa.

Disney has held off on its big marketing push until after Thanksgiving, and expects tracking to increase steadily in the coming days. The final push includes playing a trailer of the film before Moana 2which opened on Wednesday and is off to a record breaking start.

Paramount also says that it is only now beginning to spend significantly on Sonic 3. (The studio has been busy Gladiator II.)

Directed by Barry Jenkins, the musical genius Mufasa sees Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, John Kani and Beyoncé Knowles reprising their roles from the 2019 film. Newcomers include Aaron Pierre, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Thandiwe Newton, Lenni James, Anika Noni rose and Blue Ivy Carter in her feature film debut. Lin-Manuel Miranda wrote the film’s songs.

The origin story follows the adventures of two young lions, Mufasa and Taka, who become fast friends after Mufasa is orphaned and adopted by Taka’s royal family. Mufasa eventually becomes the king of the Pride Lands and the father of Simba, while Taka takes a more sinister turn and becomes known as Scar.

Sonica live-action/CGI hybrid based on the Sega video game, has been a gold mine for Paramount and a huge success story. The first one Sonic the Hedgehog the film opened well above expectations with a domestic debut of $58 million in February 2020, a month before the pandemic closed theaters. It was followed by a domestic opening of $72.1 million in March 2022. While Sonic titles lopsided male, the successor so robust family business, importance Sonic 3 could constitute direct competition for Mufasa.

The latest installment of the Sonic franchise introduces Keanu Reeves as popular video game character Shadow. He is dark and nervous, but has similar powers to the heroic hedgehog. The threequel finds franchise antagonist Dr. Robotnik (Jim Carrey) depressed and out of shape. He gets back in the saddle thanks to creating Shadow to take down Sonic, voiced by Ben Schwartz.

Mufasa and Sonic anchor the Christmas calendar this year. As always, movies that open the weekend before Christmas are not known for their big openings, as many moviegoers are otherwise preoccupied with final Christmas preparations. On the contrary, the Hollywood studios expect larger than usual multiples of children out of school and adults without work during the year-end holidays.