Blake Snell gets his pay as the Dodgers hope they landed an ace: Law

Blake Snell becomes the first free agent in my top 10 to sign this winter, inking a five-year, $182 million deal with the Dodgers that gives the defending World Series champions a potential ace — as long as he can stay on the mound.

Snell entered free agency this winter after a shortened season with the Giants of 20 starts and 104 innings — the fifth time in his seven full seasons that he didn’t qualify for the ERA title — but he’s also coming off the best half-season of his time . career. After a late start to his 2024 season and two IL stops for adductor and groin injuries, he returned on July 9 and was the best pitcher in the National League from then on, throwing 80 innings with 114 strikeouts and 30 walks allowed. He went scoreless in seven of his 14 starts, striking out 38 percent of the batters he faced in that span. Admittedly, there was some BABIP luck, as no one keeps a .203 BABIP very long, but his FIP in the smaller sample was just 1.77.

One of Snell’s second-half starts was his first career no-hitter. (Katie Stratman/USA Today)

Snell has a tremendous arsenal, with a 95-97 mph fastball with good carry, a plus-plus curveball that has great horizontal break, and a changeup that doesn’t have much movement but that he sells really well so hitters don’t pick it up. Statcast ranked the curveball as the fifth most valuable in the majors last year with a +10 run average, even though Snell threw fewer curveballs than any of the four guys ahead of him on the list. The Dodgers could be stunned by a pitcher who doesn’t get into the system that needs the dark magic pitch design they use over there.

That doesn’t mean Snell is without risk, as he is one of the least durable starters of his caliber in baseball. He has reached 130 innings only twice in his career and topped out at 180 2/3, although both times he pitched a full season, he won the Cy Young Award. He has only made 25 starts three times.

The adductor strain he suffered in 2024 was his third such injury in four years, and he’s also had several other injuries, though he’s never had any arm injuries that cost him a full year like a torn UCL. Snell getting a five-year contract one season after he had to take a one-plus-one-option deal is a huge win for him and his agent, Scott Boras, but it’s a huge investment in a starter who likely only makes 100 or so starts over the course of the contract.

The Dodgers have exactly no one on their roster who is a strong bet to make 30 starts in 2025, so even if adding Snell helps — he would help any team in baseball — they still have too much variation in their rotation’s likely bulk production. Last season, Yoshinobu Yamamoto made 18 starts around a shoulder injury. Tyler Glasnow started a career-best 22 games but went down with an elbow sprain and has already had Tommy John surgery once. Bobby Miller made 13 starts and we won’t talk about them anymore. Landon Knack made 12. Their leader in innings pitched and starts in 2024 was actually Gavin Stone, who is out in 2025 after shoulder surgery.

Yes, Shohei Ohtani should return to the mound this year, and I certainly won’t underestimate him, but I don’t think anyone should count on him getting 25 starts in his first year after his second Tommy John surgery. Even writing these last two paragraphs makes me question whether the Dodgers won the World Series this year. It seems unlikely.

Snell is the de facto ace for the Dodgers, at least for now, with Yamamoto, Glasnow, Ohtani and Knack or Miller making up the rest of the rotation on paper. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May could also feature as they finish their injury rehabs. That being said, they will definitely pick up someone else. Maybe it’s Roki Sasaki.

I had Snell as the fourth-best starter on the free agent market, behind Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Sasaki. The first two should be staggering if this is the going rate for an upper-level starter; nor Snell’s two Cy Young Awards, but Burnes has one, both are a year younger than Snell, and both have been more durable.

Sasaki’s market is limited by the silly rule that considers him an “amateur” because he’s younger than 25, even though he’s played for several years in the biggest league there is outside of the AL and NL, so this signing likely affects him not. at all.

There are still way more teams out there that could use a top shelf starter like the ones I mentioned or Jack Flaherty than there are guys like that on this market, teams like the Orioles, Mets, Red Sox and Tigers just to name a few a few will either have to spend big money to get no. 1/no. 2 starters they need or miss the limited supply.

(Top photo: Godofredo A. Vásquez / Associated Press)