College Football Playoff rankings: Alabama, Clemson on the outside looking in as Arizona State rises

Alabama fell to No. 13 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday night, and Mississippi fell to No. 14, leaving the SEC with just three teams in the projected field of 12 heading into the final weekend of the regular season.

Oregon, Ohio State, Texas and Penn State remained the top four in the rankings, and Notre Dame moved up to No. 5. Miami (10-1) moved up to no. 6, Georgia (9-2) became no. 7, and Tennessee (9-2) is now no. 8, up three places from last week.

No. 9 SMU moved into the bracket for the first time, giving the ACC two teams in the 12-team series along with Miami.

Indiana (10-1) fell five spots to No. 10 after losing to Ohio State, but stayed in the projected field.

“Indiana played well at times against Ohio State, and Ohio State obviously pulled away in the second half,” said committee chairman Ward Manuel, who is also Michigan’s athletic director. “We also felt like SMU has been playing really dominant football lately.”

The projected top-four seeds that go to conference champions and receive a first-round bye also remained the same as last week: Oregon (Big Ten), Texas (SEC), Miami (ACC) and No. 11 Boise State (Mountain) West) are at these locations.

No. 12 Clemson (9-2), another ACC team, is currently the first team out of the bracket.

Another turbulent week in the Big 12 produced a new top-ranked team from the conference, No. 16 at Arizona State (9-2), which knocked off BYU last week. The Sun Devils would be the projected no. 12 seeds. Next in the Big 12 was no. 18 Iowa State, no. 19 BYU, no. 24 Kansas State and no. 25 Colorado.

Just behind the Sun Devils at no. 17 is Tulane, the highest ranked team from the American Athletic Conference. The Green Wave have already clinched a spot in the AAC title game against Army, which fell out of the rankings after losing to Notre Dame.

No conference had a wilder week than the SEC, with three ranked teams — Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M — losing to unranked opponents on the road. The Aggies (8-3) fell five spots to No. 20.

The Crimson Tide (8-3) and Rebels (8-3) are the first two SEC teams off the field. Each faces an unranked in-state rival this weekend and is out of contention to win the SEC championship. Texas A&M hosts Texas on Saturday, with the winner facing Georgia in the SEC title game.

The other in-state rivalry game with playoff stakes on both sides is at South Carolina, where Clemson (9-2) hosts the 15th-ranked Gamecocks (8-3).

Guessing game

Perhaps the most interesting answer Manuel gave in this week’s conference call with reporters was about whether the committee will ever discuss which team would win a hypothetical matchup.

The short answer: No.

“If it starts creeping into the conversation, I make sure we cut it off. We are not projecting,” Manuel said. “We don’t know. There have been, I said before, in the last two weeks, 14 teams in the Top 25 have lost. So it’s hard to predict if this team plays that team, who will win? if this team playing against the team that will be favored by Vegas and the sportsbook? We can’t get into that because all we can relate to is what happens on the field. That’s the best way, the fairest way for us to rate the teams on is based on what happens on the pitch. We can’t get into projection.”

It just means… less?

When the committee began ranking teams the first week of November, it looked like the SEC was a lock to get four teams in the field, and there was a real chance for five playoff teams.

Now it’s going to take an upset or two to get past three, preferably in the ACC.

“We value winning. We value how the teams play and at the end of the day the scoreboard is important,” Manuel said.

SMU has locked up its spot in the ACC title game, and Miami can join the Mustangs with a win this weekend at Syracuse.

If SMU and Miami can each get to that title game in Charlotte, NC, with just one loss, the conference looks to be in solid shape for both to make the Playoff.

If Miami were to lose this weekend, Clemson would go to the ACC Championship Game. Whether the Tigers go with two losses and a win against South Carolina or three losses could also help determine whether the SEC can get a fourth team into the lineup.

The Crimson Tide, who missed the playoffs just twice in 10 years when it was four teams, appear to be the best bet to take advantage of any upsets. Alabama is ranked higher than Ole Miss and has a win against South Carolina that could help it hold off the Gamecocks.

A wild card for the SEC could be Texas A&M. With the Aggies still in contention to win the conference, they could be a bid stealer. Although the bid the Aggies steal might be from another SEC team, such as Tennessee?

G5 clamp

For the second week in a row, the Big 12 is chasing Boise State and outside of a ranking that would secure a first-round bye.

Now, the Big 12, which still has nine teams in contention to reach the conference title game, must watch out, too.

With Tulane just one spot behind Arizona State, there’s a chance the AAC champion could grab one of the five bids that go to the conference champions and skip the Big 12 entirely. Arizona State and Iowa State are the most likely championship contenders.

Catching Boise State without the Broncos losing might be tough. Their most likely Mountain West championship opponent, UNLV, is ranked No. 22 and has a pair of wins against Big 12 teams Houston and Kansas.

Keeping Tulane out doesn’t seem all that tough as long as the Big 12 champion comes from the currently ranked teams.

The Green Wave play Thanksgiving night against Memphis (9-2), but with Army falling out of the rankings, they likely won’t get much of a bump from the AAC title game.

Tulane also has a loss at home in September to Kansas State, which can be a problem when matching resumes with a Big 12 champion.

Required reading

(Photo: Brian Bahr/Getty Images)