Champions League projections: Who has performed above or below expectations at the halfway point?

The second half of the Champions League’s league stage begins today with another set of mouth-watering tournaments.

Replays of the Champions League finals in 2020 and 2022 will undoubtedly attract the most interest, but there are other interwoven stories throughout the league. Aston Villa and Manchester City will be aiming to end their winless streaks against Juventus and Feyenoord respectively, while Barcelona and Brest will be battling with a chance to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the pack chasing a top-eight- location.

With Liverpool and Sporting CP facing stiff tests, a Monaco win over Benfica could potentially send them to the top of the Champions League table. At the other end, Slovan Bratislava, Crvena Zvezda, Young Boys, Sturm Graz and RB Leipzig are all looking to get their first points of the campaign.

After four games, the league table is starting to take shape, and while much can still change, it seems an appropriate time to measure how teams have fared against expectations. So, Athletics have looked at the teams that have overperformed, underperformed and those that have played in line with expectations using our projections, powered by Opta.

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The overperformers

Sporting CP

Expected number of points before MD 1: 12 (14th in the projection table)

Projected points after MD 2: 14 (12.)

Projected points after MD 4: 17 (3.)

Match day 5 match: Arsenal (H)

Sporting produced the most eye-catching result on matchday four, defeating Manchester City 4-1 in Ruben Amorim’s last home game. The win, which followed wins over Lille and Sturm Graz and a draw with PSV, has lifted them up to second in the table at the halfway point. Sporting now have a 75 percent chance of finishing in the top eight, up from just 29 percent after the first two games.

New boss Joao Pereira began his reign with a 6-0 thrashing of fourth-tier Amarante in the Taca de Portugal, but his first real test is Arsenal. Sporting’s last three games don’t look too daunting though, so even a defeat here should leave them confident of securing direct qualification for the last 16.

Remaining inventory: Club Brugge (A), Leipzig (A), Bologna (H)

Monaco

Expected number of points before MD 1: 11 (20th in the projection table)

Projected points after MD 2: 13 (17.)

Projected points after MD 4: 15 (8.)

Match day 5 match: Benfica (H)

Monaco’s first win against Barcelona set them up for an excellent first half of their Champions League campaign, which subsequently included wins over Crvena Zvezda (5-1) and Bologna (1-0). Benfica, who have six points from four games, are a difficult proposition, but Adi Hutter’s side are clear favorites going into this game.

Victory here is crucial for the French side as their last three games pit them against difficult opponents, including two from the Premier League (Arsenal and Aston Villa). Therefore, they have only a 37 percent chance of finishing in the top eight (up from 13 percent) even after their fast start.

Remaining inventory: Arsenal (A), Aston Villa (H), Inter (A)

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Expected number of points before MD 1: 9 (28th in the projection table)

Projected points after MD 2: 10 (21.)

Projected points after MD 4: 13 (16.)

Match day 5 match: Bologna (A)

While Paris Saint-Germain have struggled in Europe while maintaining their domestic dominance, their French counterparts have enjoyed their midweek outings more than their weekends.

Lille have been one of the Champions League’s biggest surprises, picking up seven out of nine available points against Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Juventus, with wins over both Spanish giants. Jonathan David’s total of four goals is beaten by only four players, while their four goals conceded is better than Barcelona, ​​Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen.

With seven points, they are currently 14th in the table but will believe that three of their remaining four games – including against Bologna on Wednesday – are winnable. Lille have a 79 percent chance of qualifying for the knockout playoffs and a 15 percent chance of finishing in the top eight, up from 62 and five percent respectively after matchday two.

Remaining inventory: Sturm Graz (H), Liverpool (A), Feyenoord (H)

Honorable mentions: Brest, Aston Villa, Inter Milan

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On par with expectations

Liverpool

Expected number of points before MD 1: 13 (9th in the projection table)

Projected points after MD 2: 16 (4th)

Projected points after MD 4: 20 (1.)

Match day 5 match: Real Madrid (H)

Some might consider Liverpool’s perfect start an overachievement, but there are caveats to consider. Yes, Liverpool were listed as having the third-toughest fixture list by Opta before the first leg, but among their first four opponents, only Leverkusen are in the table’s top 15 after four games. The others – Milan, Leipzig and Bologna – have seven points from their combined 12 games so far.

Although the margin of victory over Leverkusen was a surprise, the result was not given the German champions’ defensive problems this season. Overall, Liverpool are where you’d expect them to be, but Arne Slot’s side must be praised for making it look easy to win in Europe.

Liverpool have comfortably been the best team in the Premier League and Champions League this season, but this week will be the biggest test as they face the reigning champions of both competitions in back-to-back matches.

Wednesday’s clash against Real Madrid is an opportunity to avenge defeats in the 2022 final (1-0) and the round of 16 in 2022-23 (6-2 on aggregate). Win this one and a perfect league stage campaign is very much on the cards.

Remaining inventory: Girona (A), Lille (H), PSV (A)

Barcelona

Expected number of points before MD 1: 15 (3rd in the projection table)

Projected points after MD 2: 14 (11.)

Projected points after MD 4: 16 (4th)

Match day 5 match: Brest (H)

Barcelona beat Bayern Munich 4-1 on matchday three, but it was a surprise given the two teams’ recent meetings. They made up for that by losing 2-1 to Monaco on matchday one with goal-heavy wins over Young Boys (5-0) and Crvena Zvezda (5-2) in their other games.

Given the vulnerabilities they have shown with their high line and lack of sufficient creativity without Lamine Yamal, it seems about where Barcelona would have expected to be at this stage of their Champions League campaign.

Victory over Brest, especially if those above them stutter, could see them take a big step towards direct qualification for the round of 16. More help is on the way; Yamal should be back soon, while Ronald Araujo has resumed training after a long-term injury.

However, it will not be a straightforward affair. Brest are unbeaten in this year’s competition and have only conceded three times in four matches.

Remaining inventory: Dortmund (A), Benfica (A), Atalanta (H)

Honorable mentions: Dortmund, Atalanta

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The underachievers

Manchester City

Expected number of points before MD 1: 17 (1st in the projection table)

Projected points after MD 2: 17 (2.)

Projected points after MD 4: 15 (6.)

Match day 5 match: Feyenoord (H)

Pep Guardiola and Man City are in uncharted territory. The only familiar part of their five-game slump has been losing to Tottenham Hotspur twice, with the 4-0 thrashing at the Etihad Stadium on Saturday giving an insight into the gravity of the situation.

Tuesday’s game against Feyenoord is crucial for Man City – currently 10th in the table – in more ways than one, with Juventus and a desperate PSG coming up next. Their chances of directly qualifying for the last 16 have dropped from 77 per cent before the first leg to 53 per cent now, but this is a team known for going on runs and a win here will give them much-needed momentum ahead of a weekend visit at Anfield.

Remaining inventory: Juventus (A), PSG (A), Club Brugge (H)

Real Madrid

Expected number of points before MD 1: 17 (2nd in the projection table)

Projected points after MD 2: 16 (6.)

Projected points after MD 4: 13 (18.)

Match day 5 match: Liverpool (A)

Speaking of uncharted territories, Real Madrid are also in trouble after four games. Second half against Borussia Dortmund aside, Real Madrid have looked far from their best. Lille and AC Milan exploited weaknesses to beat them, while Stuttgart also looked to be on par or better for large parts of their first game.

Carlo Ancelotti and his side can never be written off in this competition, but this is a team that has had far too many injuries during the process of finding their footing since the arrival of Kylian Mbappe. A new format somewhat analogous to what Florentino Perez wanted from a European Super League won’t help them either, with Liverpool hosting them this week. Defeat on Merseyside could seriously dent Madrid’s chances of finishing in the top eight, which sit at 16 per cent now, down from 57 per cent after matchday two and 74 per cent before the tournament began.

Remaining inventory: Atalanta (A), Salzburg (H), Brest (A)

Atletico Madrid

Expected number of points before MD 1: 13 (10th in the projection table)

Projected points after MD 2: 13 (15.)

Projected points after MD 4: 13 (17.)

Match day 5 match: Sparta Prague (A)

Like their cross-town rivals, Atletico Madrid also face the prospect of not qualifying directly for the knockouts after a superb start that has seen them beat PSG and Leipzig and suffer heavy defeats against Benfica (4-0) and Lille (3 ) -1).

It leaves them in a delicate position as they head into the second half of their league campaign, starting with a winnable but difficult game in Prague. Handed the 12th easiest fixture list according to Opta, Atletico still have a 79 per cent chance of making the knockout play-off round, but their chances of a top-eight finish have plummeted to 12 per cent from 31 per cent at the start of the match . season.

Remaining inventory: Slovan Bratislava (H), Leverkusen (H), Salzburg (A)

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What about the rest?

Aston Villa are winless in six matches across all competitions, with their defense conceding 12 goals in those matches. The 1-0 defeat to Club Brugge on matchday four – thanks to a Tyrone Mings brain fade – saw their top eight chances drop from 60 per cent after matchday four to 32 per cent now. Juventus’ visit to Villa Park should create a fantastic atmosphere for the hosts to feed on ahead of visits to Leipzig and Monaco.

Handed the easiest draw according to Opta, Celtic has reason to be optimistic. Victory against Club Brugge on matchday five could lift them into the top 10 based on other results – commendable considering the 7-1 defeat in Dortmund not long ago – with games against Zagreb and Young Boys to come.

On a related note, Dinamo Zagreb can be proud to sit ahead of both Madrid teams, Bayern, Milan and PSG at the halfway point. Dortmund, Celtic, Arsenal and Milan are still on their fixture list – can they sneak into the knockout play-offs at the expense of one of the usual suspects?

PSG sit 25th in our projection table, with a 32 per cent chance of relegation in the league stage, with Bayern next and Man City still waiting. Anything less than a win at the Allianz Arena – where Bayern are yet to lose and have conceded three times in seven games across all competitions – and the club could be in for some uncomfortable conversations.

(Top photo: Visionhaus/Getty Images)