50,000 Russians are ready to attack 20,000 Ukrainians in Kursk

On August 6, a powerful Ukrainian force invaded Kursk Oblast in western Russia and captured what is now a 250 square kilometer salient anchored by the city of Sudzha. On 7 November, an equally strong Russian force counter-attacked – with the aim of driving towards Sudzha along the main road entering from Zelenyi Shylakh on the western edge of the salient.

In more than two weeks of fierce fighting, the Russians have made almost no progress. The Zelenyi Shylakh-Sudzha road is littered with evidence of their failure: dozens of destroyed and abandoned armored vehicles.

But the Russians aren’t letting up, and their biggest push may be imminent. The Kremlin has reinforced its roughly 50,000-strong corps in Kursk with thousands of North Korean troops, along with elements of two Russian airborne divisions, the 76th and 106th, plus the 83rd Air Assault Brigade and the rebuilt 155th Naval Infantry Brigade. These units and others are located just northwest of the road through Zelenyi Shylakh.

“In the near future we expect a massive and, in my humble opinion, successful Russian advance on my flank in the Kursk region,” wrote Kreigsforscher, a Ukrainian Marine Corps drone operator who has supported the Ukrainian Corps in Kursk.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has given his general until the beginning of February to expel the Ukrainians from western Russia. But the real deadline, it seems, is the January 20 inauguration of US President Donald Trump, who has pledged to end Russia’s wider war on Ukraine but whose direct proposals hinge on an unenforceable ceasefire that would freeze the front line in place.

Putin should be satisfied with any ceasefire that gives him control of 11 percent of Ukraine. But Putin would be unhappy to trade away that sliver of Kursk, however small. The clock is ticking. “Two Russian VDV divisions, a VDV brigade and a marine brigade will launch an attack with many maneuvers,” Kriegsforscher warned, using the Russian acronym for “airborne.”

The 20,000-strong Ukrainian force in Kursk – drawn, among other things, from the 41st and 47th Mechanized Brigades, the 82nd and 95th Air Assault Brigades and the 17th Heavy Mechanized Brigade – is preparing for the renewed Russian attack. The 17th Heavy Mechanized Brigade, a reorganized former tank brigadehas held the line just north of the road to Sudzha.

The brigade’s latest actions underscore the sheer violence of the escalating battle. It is extremely dangerous to move along the front line without armor protection. So the 17th Heavy Mechanized Brigade has deployed some of its 60 T-64BV tanks as improvised supply vehicles.

In a chaotic mission on or before November 16, one of the 42-ton, three-person T-64s hauled a load of food to an entrenched infantry unit—and then immediately opened fire on nearby Russians with its 125-millimeter main gun. As the tank was retreating to its forest base, a Russian drone hit and damaged but did not stop the tank. “Combat Mission Accomplished,” the 17th Heavy Mechanized Brigade reported.

The danger to the Ukrainian troops will only increase as the Russian counterattack intensifies. If there is any reason for optimism among the outnumbered Ukrainians, it is that Russian forces in and around Kursk are subject to a relentless campaign of precision deep strikes by Ukrainian Air Force bombers and Ukrainian Army rocket batteries, respectively, firing British-made Storm Shadow -cruise missiles and American-made Army Tactical Missile System ballistic missiles.

On Monday, the Ukrainians hit a sprawling Russian weapons depot west of Kursk with eight ATACMs. On Wednesday they hit a Russian command post in Kursk with 10 Storm Shadows. The deep attacks could fray the supply lines to the regiments, brigades and divisions at Kursk – disrupting their command and control.

But even when undersupplied and poorly led, the Russian force at Kursk is still much larger than the Ukrainian force. Mass will count for a lot in the coming mechanized clash.

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