Carrington Valentine was scheduled to start the rest of the season

The Green Bay Packers’ defense was far from perfect Sunday as they snuck out a win against Chicago Bears by blocking a field goal as time expired. In all, they allowed 391 yards defensively, including 70 on the ground to rookie quarterback Caleb Williams.

A relatively positive development, however, was the play of cornerback Carrington Valentine, who functionally was the Dutch player opposite Keisean Nixon in the outside corner for most of the game — when starter Jaire Alexander dropped out with an injury early against Chicago. Valentine’s snap numbers have increased drastically over the past three games, from 12 snaps played against Jacksonville to 35 against Detroit and 64 against the Bears. Over the last two games, Valentine has actually played more defensive snaps (99) than the previous eight games combined (94).

So what have we learned about Valentine this month? To answer this, I’ll point you to one of the most stable defensive back metrics we have: Yards allowed per carry. coverage snap played.

Over 99 coverage snaps on the outside of the cornerback, as defined by NFL Pro’s player tracking dataValentine has allowed just 43 yards as the closest defender to the ball (Pro Football Reference has him giving up 37 yards this year if you want another source). That’s good for 0.43 yards allowed per carry. coverage snap. How does it rank? Well, among the 87 cornerbacks this season who have played as many snaps as Valentine, the league-wide average is 1.07 yards per carry. Of those 87 cornerbacks, only one has allowed fewer yards per game. coverage snap than Valentine.

Yes, that means Valentine is outscoring star players like Pat Surtain II, Devon Witherspoon, Marshon Lattimore and Jalen Ramsey, all of whom also rank in the top 10 statistically among players with as many snaps as Valentine in 2024. That’s… . pretty good and should not be ignored.

How do the rest of the Packers’ cornerback options fair? Keisean Nixon ranks 49th out of 87 with 1.07 yards allowed per carry. coverage snap, and Eric Stokes ranks 65th out of 87 at 1.35. None of them are as bad as Dallas CowboysCaelen Carson, who has allowed 343 yards (and two touchdowns) on 120 coverage snaps (2.86 yards per coverage snap), but Nixon and Stokes have both played below-average football this year.

To put it simply: The data says Nixon is a below-average cornerback but an above-average nickel player. The data says Stokes is a bad cornerback. The data says Valentine looks like a good cornerback.

Benching either Nixon or second-round safety Javon Bullard, the two players who have played the nickel spot for the Packers this year, would be a tough pill to swallow given how invested they are in those players, but doing so to open up opportunities for Valentine could easily be worth it. If Valentine goes out, it saves them a big question mark during the 2025 offseason, which features a draft class in which all three non-top-5 projected first-round cornerbacks are currently battling significant injuries.

Last week, defensive end Brenton Cox Jr., playing in his first real extended NFL performance of his career, lined up for the Packers’ defense almost as much as former first-round pick Lukas Van Ness, despite the team recently Preston traded away. Smith to the Pittsburgh Steelers. That move gives us an indication that Green Bay’s playing time decisions aren’t always primarily motivated by what the front office envisioned a player’s talent level to be in the summer. The team was rewarded with a two-tackle for loss, sack performance by Cox on Sunday.

The team has shuffled around its depth chart a lot this season as they try to put together the best lineup for the young football team. On paper, pushing Valentine into a starting role opposite Alexander is one of the few ways the team can improve.