Dallas Cowboys at Commanders: Clash Predictions with Dan Quinn

The Cowboys are preparing for the first clash of the year with Washington’s commanderswhich also represents their first chance to face Dan Quinn, the beloved former defensive coordinator who is now the head coach in the nation’s capital.

In a stark departure from the norm, when these two teams meet, the Commanders are heavy favorites. In fact, they have the second largest point spread of the week. Usually it’s the other way around, but things have fallen apart for the Cowboys this year. But not all of our writers are preparing for doom and gloom in this game.

When Washington has the ball

Bring on the flash

Rookie phenom Jayden Daniels has carried the Commanders to their strong start to the season, and part of what has been so special about him is the fact that Daniels has been one of the best in the league against the blitz. However, that has changed in the last two weeks as Daniels is playing through a rib injury.

Over the past two weeks when facing a blitz, Daniels has completed just 46.9% of his passes with a -0.805 EPA/dropback. Prior to those two games, both losses, he hit 71.4% of his passes with a +0.526 EPA/dropback. He’s been significantly worse against the blitz while playing through this injury, and that may be the only hope Dallas has against such an explosive offense.

When Dallas has the ball

Run it up the gut

Dan Quinn is in charge in Washington, and he has pretty much copied the same defensive scheme he ran in Dallas. Unsurprisingly, that has led to the same problems stopping the run, largely as a result of his wide adjustments on the defensive line.

The Commanders have been especially susceptible on runs between the tackles, where most opposing offenses have had their best success running inside them. Well, no offense runs more to the gut than the Cowboys, and Rico Dowdle has proven to be quite effective for this beleaguered offense. A healthy dose of Dowdle up the gut provides the clearest path to success against the Cowboys’ former defensive coordinator.

Now for the predictions from your BTB writers…

Tom Ryle (6-3):

Dan Quinn has his team headed in the right direction. Mike McCarthy appears to be helpless and is driving things to the bottom. An already weak Cowboys roster has been plagued by injuries. The offensive line is a mess, leading to an anemic run game and questionable pass protection. The defense can’t stop anyone consistently.

I fully expect another one-sided loss to the bosses, eg. 34-16.

Matt Holleran (5-4):

Oddly enough, I think we’re going to see the Cowboys play their first competitive game in weeks this Sunday. Dallas is very familiar with Dan Quinn’s defensive scheme and I think for the first time in weeks we will see their offense have some success.

Washington’s offense will also cause problems, but I see Dallas’ defense forcing Jayden Daniels into a turnover or two. I could end up being wrong, but I just have a feeling the Cowboys will play Washington very hard in this game. They don’t break the streak and win, but they give the Commanders a hell of a fight.

Give me Washington in a close one, 24-23.

Jess Haynie (7-2):

Washington’s weak pass defense should allow even Cooper Rush to do some cooking. But this will be the most energetic Commanders home crowd we’ve seen in a while, ready to have their turn shovel more dirt on Dallas’ season. I think the Cowboys make it closer than most people think, but that’s all I can offer.

Commanders 27, Cowboys 19.

Brandon Loree (7-3):

If the Cowboys are going to win this game on Sunday against the Washington Chiefs, the defense needs to create turnovers and give the offense more opportunities to score points. QB Jayden Daniels is having a great season, but he has struggled over the last two weeks against veteran defensive coordinators. Under pressure, according to PFF, Daniels is 27th in his overall grade and 29th in completion percentage. When stunned, Daniels is the 18th-best passer and ranks 23rd in completion percentage.

That means Mike Zimmer will have to time some good blitzes with Micah Parsons and DeMarvion Overshown. DeMo has generated multiple pressures in each of the Cowboys’ last five games per game. NFL Pro, and his 30.2% pressure rate is the highest of any defensive player in the NFL with at least 50 pass rushes this season. Create more opportunities for the offense and maybe Dallas will have a chance to win.

Hell, give me a Cowboys win 21-20.

Mike Poland (4-5):

The Washington Commanders have scored most rushing touchdowns than any other team in the NFL. In contrast, the Dallas Cowboys’ defense has allowed most rushing touchdowns in the league this year. No matter how much people say this is a passing league, controlling the ground game is the easiest path to victory. Things aren’t looking good for Dallas this week.

Commanders win this week 31-13.

Dana Bartholomew (7-2):

The Cowboys haven’t really done much to instill hope that they’ll be able to beat a highly motivated Commanders team this Sunday. The commanders are looking to finally get the best cowboys that have bullied them in this rivalry for years.

Coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Eagles that knocked them out of first place in the division, this is a revenge game for the Commanders as many of the players and staff are former Cowboys. Not sure you could get much more motivation than that. As for the Cowboys, not even the possible return of DaRon Bland and Brandin Cooks could give me the confidence to pick them at this point.

Commanders win, 38-10.

Brian Martin (6-3):

The Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders appear to be heading in opposite directions. Washington looks like the playoff team the Cowboys were supposed to be, and Dallas looks like the rebuilding organization the Commanders were supposed to be. With absolutely no reason to give their best, the coaches or the players, I fully expect another embarrassing performance.

Give me Washington, 35-13.

Chris Halling (4-6):

As long as Cooper Rush is starting at QB and Mike McCarthy is the team’s head coach, the Dallas Cowboys will continue to lose. This would be an exciting matchup if Dallas was healthy. Pitted against rookie QB Jayden Daniels and former Cowboys coordinator Dan Quinn, this could have been a big matchup. Unfortunately, the Cowboys are battling too many injuries to keep this one competitive. Micah Parsons ends the game with two sacks, but the offense can’t keep up.

Cowboys lose 27-10.

RJ Ochoa (7-2):

In addition to the fact that they are not a very talented football team, the Dallas Cowboys also seem to be one that is more eager for their season to end than any of us who have the unfortunate reality of rooting for you.

I can’t think of a time when I’ll feel confident about taking Dallas, I might feel less exhausted by them against the Giants next week, especially when their former defensive coordinator is ready to prove that his pastures actually is greener, better and less dominated by toxicity.

Give me the commanders, 30-13.

David Howman (6-3):

I see this game going one of two ways: It’s either going to be really close, or the Commanders are going to blow the Cowboys’ doors off and have a lot of people dust off their receipts and call for Dan Quinn to be the head coach of Dallas instead of Mike McCarthy.

I’m leaning towards the former, only because the Commanders have been in a rut lately. Their defense relies almost entirely on pass rush wins, but the secondary has too many holes and they can’t stop the run. More concerning is Jayden Daniels not looking like himself as he plays through a rib injury. I see this one coming down to the wire, but Daniels makes a couple of big plays in crunch time to add a highlight to his future OROY reel.

Commanders win, 24-20.