Penn State rooting guide: What the Nittany Lions need to make the Big Ten title game, Playoff

On November 24, 2024By Littum

Whether or not Penn State will host a College Football Playoff game next month should be pretty clear Saturday night. Yes, there are two games left in the regular season for the No. 4 Nittany Lions, but this road trip to Minnesota (6-4, 4-3 Big Ten) combined with the outcome of Saturday’s Indiana-Ohio State game should help clear up the Playoff and Big Ten championship picture.

Of course, Penn State (9-1, 6-1) still has to play Maryland (4-6, 1-6) at Beaver Stadium next Saturday, but a win against the Golden Gophers puts Penn State’s odds of making the 12-team playoff on 97 percent, per Athletics‘s Austin Mock. Should the Nittany Lions lose to Minnesota, that percentage drops to 63 percent.

Here’s what I want to see this weekend and how it could affect Penn State’s playoff bid and potential seeding:

1. This is the week to root for Ohio State. I know it probably feels bizarre to many of you, but from noon to 15 you want Will Howard and the Buckeyes to beat Indiana. Why? Penn State needs to win out and then have Indiana lose twice and Ohio State lose to Michigan to play for the Big Ten Championship. Oregon has already locked up a trip to Lucas Oil Stadium. The odds of the Nittany Lions making it to Indianapolis aren’t great, but you want Ohio State to win on Saturday and then lose next week to Michigan. Indiana will lose to Ohio State and then lose again next Saturday to Purdue. Again, it’s not likely, but disruptions can and do happen.

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2. The margin of victory for whoever wins in Columbus will be another data point for the College Football Playoff selection committee. No. 5 Indiana has been maligned for their strength of schedule. Penn State’s strength of schedule is better, and the Nittany Lions have also been praised by the committee for being in close contention with Ohio State. If the Hoosiers are blown out, there’s no doubt that Penn State will remain ranked ahead of them. Where Indiana falls and whether the Hoosiers stay in the Playoff race will come up next. Remember, Penn State lost to Ohio State by 7 points. If Indiana loses by three, does that change anything for the committee in terms of comparing Penn State and Indiana?

3. What if Indiana beats Ohio State? The Hoosiers would then leapfrog Penn State in the standings and at 11-0 and with a game remaining against Purdue, Indiana would likely be ready for a game down the road in Indianapolis on Dec. 8. Ohio State then slips back in the rankings with another loss, but how far? Remember, teams seeded five through eight host a playoff game. Penn State should still be able to host a playoff game at that point. But keeping Indiana behind Penn State will give Nittany Lion fans less to sweat about.

4. If Indiana and Penn State both finish 11-1 with a loss to Ohio State, then what? If these two have the best record, meaning Ohio State goes 10-2 with losses to Oregon and Michigan, we arrive here. This is where the fourth criterion in Big Ten title game tiebreakers comes into play. This is where the conference record of the four different teams on Penn State’s schedule (Illinois, Wisconsin, USC and Minnesota) would be compared to the records of the four different teams on Minnesota’s schedule (Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Northwestern). The team whose opponents have the highest cumulative conference winning percentage goes to Indianapolis. This scenario still favors Penn State. Heading into this weekend, Penn State’s four opponents are 14-15 in conference play. Indiana’s four are 9-19.

Penn State fans will keep a close eye on fellow Big Ten programs Ohio State and Indiana in the battle for a Playoff spot. (Matthew O’Haren/Imagn Images)

5. Forget about Ohio State and Indiana for a moment. Penn State still needs – and I think should – win. This Minnesota game is the last true test for Penn State (sorry, Maryland). It could also be the last time this team plays away for a long time. Yes, PJ Fleck’s side are coming off an off week and have upset potential. We all watched Oregon battle Wisconsin last week and know that strange things happen in this sport, especially this season. Still, Penn State is the more talented team. Franklin’s teams over the last decade have been really good at winning the games they should win. Yes, Minnesota nearly sent Franklin’s Penn State coaching career into a tailspin in 2016, halftime boos in Beaver Stadium and all, but if this team is as good as we think it is, it should be fine on the road in what should be a chilly afternoon. My pick: Penn State 27, Minnesota 13.

6. Penn State would feel a lot better about itself if it can put together a strong and consistent running game and build some confidence in a pass catcher not named Tyler Warren. Those are the two aspects of this offense that, if they can click, could be the difference between Penn State just getting in and Penn State actually making some noise in the playoffs. Nick Singleton, like most starters, didn’t have to take on a full workload last week against Purdue. Minnesota is 11th in the conference in run defense (119.8 yards per game) and sixth against the pass.

7. While Penn State still needs someone not named Warren to step up, there’s no doubt that the No. 44 will get his touches. Several players and coaches this week, including tight ends coach Ty Howle, were asked about Warren’s case in the Heisman race. Howle, who was an analyst when Warren was recruited, said “absolutely” Warren should be a Heisman candidate.

“What makes him special is all the ways he can impact a game,” Howle said. “He can catch it for a lot of yards, make explosive plays, break tackles. This offseason, looking at areas to improve, was driven after the catch. Not just speed, but using his off arm and breaking tackles. That has been a big part of his success.”

8. Has Franklin’s message to officials landed? After the win at Purdue, the head coach mentioned how Abdul Carter continues to play through multiple team penalties each game. One of the best defensive players in the country continues to insist he’s still learning and growing into his role off the edge. Still, if Carter is held back again, I wonder if we’ll see the officials start making more of these calls? If it wasn’t before, it should definitely be on their radar. Carter can open a game and will likely continue to attract double teams. With Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton — who should be back to full health after being close to full back last week — Penn State may have the best two edge rushers in the Playoff field.

(Top photo of Penn State coach James Franklin and tight end Tyler Warren: Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)