2024 NFL Week 11 Betting Texans-Cowboys Odds, Picks, Lines

On By Littum

November 18, 2024, 8:11 a.m. ET

Week 11 ends in Dallas as the Houston Texans face the Dallas Cowboys on “Monday Night Football.” Both teams are eager to get back into the win column, with the Texans losing their last two games and the Cowboys their last four. The game starts at 8:15 PM ET on ABC/ESPN.

After losing Dak Prescott to injury, the Cowboys will once again start Cooper Rush at quarterback and hope last week’s 45 passing yards was just a bad game rather than a sign of things to come. The Texans have also had significant injuries this season, especially at wide receiver, but Nico Collins is back and ready to return to a big role in the offense.

The Texans come in as touchdown favorites on the road in a game that has just 41.5 expected total points.

Odds current as of time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

Game lines

Spread: Texas (-7)
Money line: Texans (-380), Cowboys (+290)
Over/Under: 41.5

Notice in the first half: Texas (-4.5)
Texans’ total points: 24.5 (over -105/under -125)
Cowboys total points: 16.5 (over -110/under -120)

The props

Passed

CJ Stroud Total Passing Yards: 249.5 (over +115/under -145)
Stroud Total Passing TDs: 1.5 (over +100/under -130)
Cooper Rush Total Passing Yards: 174.5 (over -130/under +100)
Rush Total Passing TDs: 0.5 (over -165/under +130)

Hating

Joe Mixon Total Rushing Yards: 89.5 (over -105/under -125)
Rico Dowdle Total Rushing Yards: 49.5 (over -145/under +115)

Receiver

CeeDee Lamb Total Receiving Yards: 59.5 (over -125/under -105)
Nico Collins Total Receiving Yards: 69.5 (over -140/under +110)
Tank Dell’s total receiving yards: 49.5 (over -110/under -120)
Jake Ferguson receives in total: 34.5 (over -130/under +100)
Dalton Schultz Total Receiving Yards: 29.5 (over -115/under -115)
Rico Dowdle Total Receiving Yards: 19.5 (over -135/under +105)
Joe Mixon Total Receiving Yards: 14.5 (over -135/under +105)

Eric Moody’s pick of the game:

Nico Collins over 69.5 receiving yards (-140): CJ Stroud and the Texans are happy to have Collins back after he sat out five games with a hamstring injury. Before the injury, Collins cleared that line in every game and had 10 or more goals in three of his five appearances. Stroud also benefited from Collins’ presence, ranking third in passing yards during those games. Against a Cowboys defense that gives up the seventh-most yards per game, Collins is in prime position to come back strong.

Dalton Schultz over 29.5 receiving yards (-110): Schultz has cleared that line in just four games this season, but there is reason for optimism. Since Stefon Diggs’ season-ending injury in late October, Schultz has had more involvement in the Texans’ offense. With Collins back, Schultz should have more chances in the middle of the field, especially against a Cowboys secondary dealing with injuries. And let’s not forget the revenge-game factor – Schultz should be motivated to deliver against his former team.

Dallas Cowboys Under 16.5 Total Points (-120): The Cowboys’ defense has struggled against the run, allowing the ninth-most rushing yards per game to running backs and ranking 30th in run stop rate, which should benefit the Texans as they lean on Joe Mixon to control time of possession . Dallas’ offense scored just six points against the Eagles in Week 10, with Rush passing for 45 yards. Since Philadelphia’s secondary has struggled most of the season, this was telling. Meanwhile, the Texans’ defense is getting healthier, which could make it a tough night for the Cowboys, especially on offense with CeeDee Lamb nursing shoulder and back injuries.

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

  • Unders are 8-2 in Texans games this season, the highest under percentage in the NFL. Unders are 8-1 in their last nine games with four straight unders.

  • The Texans are 9-1 ATS in the first half this season, the best mark in the NFL.

  • The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four games, their longest ATS losing streak since 2020 (eight straight). They are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games.

  • This is the sixth straight game in which the Cowboys are underdogs, their longest streak since 2015 (seven straight). This would be the first time since 1989 that the Cowboys are at least 7-point underdogs in back-to-back home games.

  • The Texans are 5-10 ATS as favorites under DeMeco Ryans. They are 8-20-1 ATS as favorites since 2019. The Texans haven’t closed as at least 7-point favorites since 2020 (-7.5 vs Bengals).

  • The Cowboys can fall short of their season win total (10.5) with a loss.

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