Experts release new Chiefs vs. Bills prediction after reports TE Dawson Knox will start over with injured Dalton Kincaid

On By Littum

The Buffalo Bills will host the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11 of the NFL season at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, scheduled to begin at 4:25 PM EST.

All week there have been questions about the availability of injured Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid. It has now been confirmed to Dalton Kincaid will not play against Chiefs; backup tight end Dawson Knox gets the start instead.

In light of that update, the data analysts at Dimer ran 10,000 simulations of the Bills-Chiefs matchup early Sunday morning, taking into account Buffalo’s roster update at tight end. The results were compared to current NFL betting odds to inform the data-driven Bills vs Chiefs betting guide below.

This preview includes Dimers best bets, statistical projections and predicted score line for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills. Fans of both teams can unlock a variety of betting boosts for today’s games with these bets from FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings and Bet365.

Chiefs vs. Betting Preview Bills

Explore the interactive widget below to see the latest spreads, over/under and moneyline odds and probabilities for the Chiefs-Bills matchup at Highmark Stadium.

Check out all the important details on today’s games, as well as the best odds sourced from the best sportsbooks in the country.

Game details

The most important information you need before Chiefs vs. Bills NFL game.

Odds

The latest and best odds for the NFL game between the Chiefs and the Bills.

  • Spread: Chiefs +1.5 (-105), Bills -1.5 (-115)
  • Money line: Chiefs +116, Bills -130
  • Total: Over/Under 45.5 (-110/-108)

Odds and lines presented here are the best available from selected sports betting sites at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Expert Prediction: Chiefs vs. Bills

Utilizing reliable data analysis and computing power, the experts at Dimers have carried out 10,000 simulations of Sunday’s Chiefs vs. Bills game.

According to Dimers’ independent predictive analytics model is Bills are more likely to beat the Chiefs at Highmark Stadium. This prediction is based on the model that gives the Bills a 59% chance to win the game.

Furthermore, Dimers predicts that the Bills (-1.5) have a 58% chance to cover the spread, while the 45.5 point over/under is considered an even 50-50 chance to hit.

These predictions and probabilities are correct at the time of publication, but are subject to potential change.

Our top picks for Chiefs vs. The Bills’ Week 11 NFL matchup is the one to bet on Bills -1.5 (-115).

This expert betting advice is based on detailed modeling and valuable betting intelligence, designed to give you the best possible bets.

Score Prediction for Chiefs vs. Bills

Dimers’ Predicted Final Score for Kansas City vs. The Buffalo game on Sunday has the Bills winning 23-21.

This expert prediction is based on each team’s average score after 10,000 game simulations, giving an insight into the potential outcome.

Updated statistical projections

Bills expected box score leaders

  • QB Passing Yards: Josh Allen236 yards
  • Receiving yards: Amari Cooper58 meters
  • Rushing yards: James Cook69 meters

Bills are accepted

  • K. Shakir: 30% touchdown percentage, 62 expected yards
  • A. Cooper: 32% touchdown percentage, 55 expected yards
  • M. Hollins: 18% touchdown percentage, 33 expected yards
  • D. Knox: 19% touchdown percentage, 28 projected yards
  • C. Samuel: 16% touchdown percentage, 25 expected yards

Chiefs projected box score leaders

  • QB Passing Yards: Patrick Mahomes220 yards
  • Receiving yards: Travis Kelce68 meters
  • Rushing yards: Kareem Hunt72 meters

Bosses receive

  • T. Kelce: 35% touchdown percentage, 69 expected yards
  • D. Hopkins: 31% touchdown percentage, 60 expected yards
  • X. Worthy: 20% touchdown percentage, 33 expected yards
  • N. Gray: 18% touchdown percentage, 24 expected yards
  • J. Smith-Schuster: 17% touchdown percentage, 24 expected yards

NFL props are an enjoyable way to bet on Sunday’s game without necessarily betting on the outcome.

This article contains the most likely first and anytime touchdown scores for the Chiefs and Bills, as well as projected player statistics.

Kansas City Chiefs

First Touchdown Scorer Predictions

  • Kareem Hunt: 11.1% probability
  • Travis Kelce: 7.6% probability
  • DeAndre Hopkins: 7.1% probability

Anytime touchdown predictions

  • Kareem Hunt: 47.5% probability
  • Travis Kelce: 34.6% probability
  • DeAndre Hopkins: 31.0% probability

Buffalo Bills

First touchdown scorer predictions

  • Josh Allen: 10.9% probability
  • James Cook: 9.4% probability
  • Amari Cooper: 7.2% probability

Anytime touchdown predictions

  • Josh Allen: 45.7% probability
  • James Cook: 39.9% probability
  • Amari Cooper: 32.2% probability

Projected box score leaders

  • QB Passing Yards: Josh Allen236 yards
  • Receiving yards: Amari Cooper58 meters
  • Rushing yards: James Cook69 meters

NFL Week 11: Chiefs vs. Bills

Get ready for Sunday’s action between the Chiefs and Bills in Week 11 NFL season at Highmark Stadium, which is scheduled to begin at 4:25 PM EST. We emphasize that all NFL predictions and NFL best bets on this page are derived from 10,000 data-driven simulations of Chiefs vs. Bills matchup and are accurate at time of publication. They are intended to help you make better decisions when placing bets at online sportsbooks.

Please note that when engaging in online betting, it is important to exercise responsible gambling practices and consult reputable sources for the most recent and accurate information.