UFC 309 Predictions – MMA Fighting

Jon Jones has waited a long time for this, even if no one else has.

When Jones captured a vacant heavyweight title with an absolute drubbing of Ciryl Gane at UFC 285, few questioned that Jones’ first defense might be against Stipe Miocic, another legend of the game. Miocic holds the record for most successful consecutive defenses (3) in the division, defending it four times in total across two reigns.

The problem is that Jones’ title win happened in March. By 2023.

Miocic has not fought since his second title run ended with a Francis Ngannou knockout in March. As of 2021. He hasn’t won a game since August 2020.

And during all this time, a promising heavyweight named Tom Aspinall rose to the top of the division with a brilliant streak of knockouts against top contenders. Aspinall is currently the interim champion, has already defended it once against Curtis Blaydes to avenge his lone UFC loss, and is No. 1 in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings, while Jones and Miocic have both been removed for inactivity.

We’ve all had to accept that Jones would never fight Aspinall this year (it should be noted that Jones spent much of the first half of 2024 recovering from a chest injury) and might never fight Aspinall, so all we can do is appreciate that we are about to see the dream match of Jones vs. Miocic – while it’s a bit over, it’s best before the date.

In other main card action, lightweight contenders Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler rematch in a five-round co-headliner, and undefeated middleweight prospect Bo Nickal takes on the challenge of veteran Paul Craig, top-15 flyweight Viviane Araujo looks to snap Karine Silva’s 10-fight win streak, and Mauricio Ruffy and James Llontop look to open the pay-per-view with a highlight reel.

What: UFC 309

Where: Madison Square Garden in New York

When: Saturday 16 November. The four-fight early preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and Hulu, followed by a four-fight preliminary card airing on ESPN+, ESPNews, FX and Hulu at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10:00 PM ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.

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(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Ranking)

Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic

Putting all that bullshit aside, this is still Jon Jones we’re talking about here. And when the cage door closes, Jon Jones is still pretty good.

There have been some close calls for Jones in recent years, but I’ve always believed that Jones is at his worst when he’s not motivated (see: Dominick Reyes, Thiago Santos). While it’s an easy excuse for “Bones” when he has an off-night, it’s fair to contrast those performances with when he’s at his best.

He manipulated Ciryl Gane, an athletic heavyweight who presented Jones with serious problems on paper (uh, other than in the takedown defense department). Alexander Gustafsson, one of Jones’ first real tests, did not make it past Round 3 as Jones was locked in for the rematch. He has two convincing wins over Daniel Cormier (one of which has been erased from history due to a failed drug test, but still!).

Although some of his most memorable moments were years ago, I have no reason to believe he has lost his unique combination of skills. Elite wrestling. Evil ground-and-pound. Frustrating distance striking. Almost impenetrable defense. Clinch work that might be the best we’ve ever seen from a mixed martial artist.

It sounds ridiculous to dismiss Stipe Miocic as only having a puncher’s chance, but what else can we do when discussing the odds for a fighter who recently celebrated his 42nd birthday and hasn’t won a fight in over four years ? Miocic never had the air of arrogance and invincibility that Jones has, which is one of the reasons his time at the top was so compelling.

Miocic is a great wrestler and has more than enough power to hurt Jones if he is able to close the distance. That’s such a huge “if”. Jones has such a speed and athletic advantage over Miocic that there’s almost no way he’ll be caught early unless he completely underestimates the challenger. And if Miocic gets too close, Jones will look to dump him on his back. If (there’s that word again) Miocic can stuff a takedown or two, then this fight will be interesting.

There are just too many ways for Jones to win here, and this definitely falls into the category of fights he’s motivated for. He hasn’t shut up about it in over a year!

So we get Good Jon Jones on Saturday night as he adds another impressive name to his hit list. Then we can go back to endlessly pontificating about what he might do next.

Pick: Jones

Charles Oliveira (4, P4P-17) vs. Michael Chandler

This is such a dangerous fight for Charles Oliveira with some upside, I’m actually getting serious disturbed vibes. What does he get out of beating Michael Chandler again? Would that really give him another shot at Islam Makhachev? Or if Makhachev loses to Arman Tsarukyan in a still-to-be-booked title fight, would Oliveira get a rematch with Tsarukyan, who just beat him in a competitive match last April?

He certainly doesn’t have as many obvious reasons to be motivated as Chandler. “Iron Mike” can avenge a loss, steal the show at Madison Square Garden and possibly slide into a title shot after wasting the last two years chasing Conor McGregor. We can criticize Chandler all we want for his dogged pursuit of McGregor, but he somehow always finds a way to keep his name near the front of the candidate line.

As odd as the timing is for this rematch, it should make for a compelling fight. Oliveira is always ready to risk it for the biscuit and you can bet Chandler will be there at every turn to face him head on. I’m always going to favor “Do Bronx” in this scenario, so he should close the door on this non-feud, this time forcing Chandler to tap.

Pick: Oliveira

Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig

Quality booking here as Bo Nickal has a legitimate test ahead of him in Paul Craig. It’s a big step up from Cody Brundage, Val Woodburn and Jamie Pickett.

That said, Craig is also the perfect name to usher in a customer. He’s on the other side of 35, he’s in a 1-4 slump (with all of his losses coming against quality fighters), and he’s very susceptible to a finish. Even better, he has some impressive wins to his name, so if Nickal beats him, he gets to say he beat the guy who beat guys. Smart way to push a customer.

Nickal is the biggest favorite on the card for good reason. He’s aggressive, explosive, and oh yeah, he can fight a little. Craig is a keen grappler when it comes to fighting off the back, but that would be a mistake as Nickal hesitated with him. I see Craig trying to use his veteran guile to lure Nickal into a trap only to be wiped out on the ground.

Pick: Nickel

Viviane Araujo (12) against Karine Silva

This matchup doesn’t get the same level of hype, but Karine Silva faces a similar challenge to Nickal. Viviane Araujo has been a mainstay in the flyweight rankings and she remains a tough fight, even with losses in three of her last four fights. She’s nearly impossible to finish, she’s a strong grappler, and she doesn’t mind making a match ugly to win.

Silva has stormed out of the gate to start her UFC career, finishing her first three opponents in the first round and then earning a decision nod over veteran Ariane da Silva. She is ready to climb the rankings, and it starts with Araujo, who has typically only lost to contenders.

It is the calculated aggression with which Silva fights that makes her so dangerous. She’s never in a hurry, she’s never in a hurry to figure out her next move. When she sees an opening, she pounces; when she feels weakness, she finishes. Silva’s win over da Silva was the first time she had to go to the scorecards to secure a victory.

A fight on the ground can turn into a stalemate, so I prefer Silva to make the most of her moments on the feet and use well-timed power punches to stay up on the cards. She will score points from top position if the opportunity presents itself, but otherwise I expect Silva to deliver a mature performance en route to a decision win.

Pick: Silva

Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Lontop

Take Mauricio Ruffy’s creative and athletic attack and mix it with a short-tempered opponent with defensive deficiencies. Can you say… Performance of the Night bonus?

James Llontop failed to make the contracted catchweight limit for this fight after being called up two weeks ago, so based on that it’s fair to say he’s not at his best. I’m sure he goes in with the intention of winning, but getting over the line tells you a lot about how prepared he is to face one of the lightweight division’s most exciting up-and-comers.

Look for Llontop to come out early to try and catch Luffy and mitigate any cardio issues. Luffy will use smooth movements to create angles from which to pick Llontop apart before landing a coup de grace attack. And the Fighting Nerds roll on.

Luffy after knockout in the first round.

Pick: Luffy

Preliminary

Jonathan Martinez def. Marcus McGhee

Chris Weidman def. Eric Anders

Jim Miller def. Damon Jackson

David Onama def. Roberto Romero

Marcin Tybura (9) def. Jonathan Diniz

Ramiz Brahimaj def. Mickey Gall

Oban Elliott def. Basil Hafez

Veronica Hardy def. Eduardo Moura