Sara sti sees a big shift

On By Littum

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A change in Tropical Storm Sara’s path significantly affects its timeline, raising doubts about whether it will survive landfall over Central America with enough steam to regain strength and continue its original path to Florida.

The National Hurricane Center announced that Tropical Storm Sara formed on Thursday. Any further development will depend on where Sara’s the eye grazes the northern Honduran coastline.

If the storm’s center remains over water, it could continue to intensify and become Hurricane Sara, but further development will be unlikely if it crosses land. Should the second scenario occur, it reduces the odds that Sara will be able to emerge over the Gulf of Mexico with enough energy to regain strength and reach Florida.

Tropical Storm Sara timeline at 10 Thursday

Tropical Depression 19 formed Thursday morning and will continue to see some development before reaching Honduras later Thursday.

Sustained wind speeds were just below the 39 mph threshold needed to designate the system as a tropical storm, but Tropical Storm Sara is expected to form later Thursday. The low was moving west at about 14 mph.

Tropical Storm Sara timeline at 19 Thursday

Tropical Storm Sara is likely to form Thursday evening. At this point, Sara will begin a trek parallel to the northern Honduran coastline. The storm’s path here will play a big role in how strong it is able to become and whether it can survive a deeper path over land in the Yucatan Peninsula. Sara’s path is expected to slow slightly Thursday night as it continues west.

Tropical Storm Sara timeline at 19 Friday

Tropical Storm Sara will begin to have a significant impact on Honduras and Nicaragua on Friday evening. The storm is expected to stall and meander around the region through Saturday, when torrential downpours will cause life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flooding and mudslides in areas along and near Sierra La Esperanza, Honduras.

In total, Sara is expected to produce between 10 to 20 inches of rain early next week, with isolated storms totaling about 30 inches over northern Honduras.

Nearby regions including the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua will see between 5 to 10 inches of rain, with localized totals of about 15 inches.

Tropical Storm Sara timeline at 19 Saturday

Tropical Storm Sara will not stay much further west Saturday night compared to Friday night. It is expected to be northeast of Trujillo, located on the Caribbean coast in the Honduran department of Colón. The storm will begin to pick up steam as it begins to move northwest over the Bay Islands.

Tropical Storm Sara timeline at 19 Sunday

Tropical Storm Sara will be back over the water as it prepares to make landfall in northern Belize and into the Yucatan Peninsula. Sara’s Sunday night path will have all-clear Belize and a good portion of the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night.

Tropical Storm Sara timeline at 19 Monday

By Monday, Tropical Storm Sara will likely have weakened enough to be downgraded back to a tropical depression. The center of the storm is expected to be somewhere near the central border between Campeche, Yucatan and Quintana Roo.

Tropical Storm Sara timeline at 19 Tuesday

From here, AccuWeather and the National Hurricane Center’s paths diverge. The NHC’s current predictions only extend to Tuesday morning and have the storm emerging in the western Gulf of Mexico.

AccuWeather predicts the storm will make a sharper curve off the Yucatan Peninsula and end up in the central Gulf, closer to the east. From there, AccuWeather shows a potential landfall in Florida by Wednesday at the latest.

It is still uncertain whether Sara, or what is left of Sara, will be strong enough to make it to Florida.

Editor’s note: This story was updated to reflect that Tropical Depression 19 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Sara.