2024 NFL Week 11 Betting – Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles Picks, Odds, Lines

On By Littum

14 Nov 2024, at 10 a.m. ET

First place in the NFC East will be at stake when the Washington Commanders (7-3) visit the Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) on “Thursday Night Football” (8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video).

It looks to be a two-team race in the division, with Philadelphia the -225 favorite and Washington +185 at ESPN BET.

Both teams boast MVP candidates at quarterback, with Jalen Hurts and Jayden Daniels at 13-1 odds (top among NFC players) to take home the award.

The Commanders are coming off their first home loss of the season, a 28-27 nail biter against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Meanwhile, the Eagles are riding a five-game winning streak and just routed the Dallas Cowboys 34-6 last Sunday.

The NFC East rivals meet again in Week 16.

Odds current as of time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

Game lines

Spread: Eagles -3.5 (open Eagles -3.5)
Moneyline: Eagles -195, Commanders +165
Over/Under: 48.5 (opened 49.5)

Notice in the first half: Eagles -2.5 (-125), Commanders +2.5 (+105)
Eagles total points: 26.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Commander’s total points: 21.5 (Over -120/Under -110)

The props

Passed

Jalen hurts everything that passes yards: 274.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Hurt Total TDs Passed: 1.5 (Over +120/Under -155)
Jayden Daniels Total Passing Yards: 224.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Daniel’s Total Passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +120/Under -155)

Hating

Saquon Barkley total rushing yards: 89.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Hurts Total Rushing Yards: 39.5 (Over -110/Under -120)

Receiver

AJ Brown Total Receiving Yards: 79.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Terry McLaurin receives a total of: 59.5 (Over -130/Under +100)
DeVonta Smith Total Receiving Yards: 49.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
Noah Brown receives a total of: 39.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Zach Ertz Total Receiving Yards: 34.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Dallas Goedert Total Receiving Yards: 29.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Barkley total receiving yards: 14.5 (Over +105/Under -135)

Tyler Fulghum’s pick: Commanders +3.5

This line opened at Eagles -3.5 and looked more likely to move to -3 (which it did) than -4. That’s why I got into Commanders at +3.5 when I could. Although Washington lost to the Steelers in Week 10, it was a coin-flip game that the Commanders could have easily won. If they had, we wouldn’t have had this number published on the market.

Nick Sirianni and the Eagles are coming off a dominant win in Dallas, but that should be excused by the Cowboys’ poor state more than anything else. I trust Jayden Daniels and Dan Quinn to keep this game close. Washington is also live on the money line. Commanders can win this game outright. It should be a good one.

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information

  • Commanders are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games (didn’t cover last week). They are 4-1 ATS on the road this season with four straight shutouts.

  • All five of the Commanders’ road games have gone over that total this season.

  • The Eagles are 11-4 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 under Nick Sirianni, including 9-1 ATS in their last 10 and 7-1 ATS since 2022. The Commanders are 5-1 ATS in that spot since 2023.

  • The Commanders have covered three straight games as an underdog.

  • Eagles are 0-3 ATS in their last three home games.

  • The Commanders have covered three meetings in a row, with all three games going over the total.

  • The Eagles are 2-7 ATS in the first quarter this season.

  • The Commanders have gone through their team in total in eight out of 10 games.

More from ESPN