When will Minnesota get its first significant snowfall of the season? A look at previous winters.

MINNEAPOLIS — We’re almost halfway through November, and few snowflakes have reached the ground in Minnesota, leaving many of the state’s residents wondering when they’ll have to break out the shovel or snow thrower.

First, let’s define what significant snowfall is. The National Weather Service Twin Cities’ threshold for issuing a winter storm watch or warning is 6 inches of snow within 48 hours. WCCO’s NEXT Weather team generally defines it the same way.

Minnesota’s average first 6-inch snowfall is January 8. The earliest recorded is October 20, which occurred in 2020, while the latest occurred on April 20, 1893.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s winter view predicts a colder and more snow than average season for Minnesota this winter. Cool sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific—a pattern called La Niña—tend to bring this type of weather to the Upper Midwest during meteorological winter, which runs from December to February.

Not all La Niña winters play out like this, however. Here’s a look at the first significant snowfall in some La Niña years similar to this one.

• 2022-2023: November 29
• 2017-2018: January 22
• 2011-2012: No storm over 6 inches
• 2008-2009: February 26
• 2005-2006: March 13
• 2000-2001: December 16
• 1995-1996: December 8

These numbers show that there is not a strong correlation between La Niña and when the first big snowfall arrives.

The state saw some snowfall on Halloween this year, but nothing close to significant. Less than a quarter inch was recorded in the Twin Cities.

A system arriving early next week has the potential to bring snow showers, although current modeling, with much uncertainty, shows well under 6 inches falling in the metro.