November 13 Weather cool day and necessary rain on the way tomorrow plus new tropical storm expected

13 November 2024

Report Wednesday morning

We have a cold start to a chilly day that will once again bring us sunshine and dry weather. We desperately need rain and another round is coming. This could bring us between 1/2 and 1 inch for much of the region later tomorrow.

The other story is the continuing tropical season. A new storm is expected to develop in the Caribbean this weekend. Currently identified as Invest 99L, the next tropical storm name is Sara. It is expected to become a hurricane and could hit Florida next week. Some of that moisture can also benefit us later.

Temperatures at 6:00 a.m

Very cool start to the day.

Surface weather in the morning

High Pressure is in control with clear skies and light winds. The core of the cool air settles in.

The next storm system is developing in the Central Plains and will arrive in the eastern US tomorrow.

Afternoon temperatures

The core of the cool air will settle in despite the sunshine.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY November 13

Sunrise at 6:48

Sunset at 16:53

Normal low in Baltimore: 37ºF

Record 22ºF in 1911; 2019

Normal high in Baltimore: 59ºF

Record 77ºF 1955

Baltimore drought update

Precipitation -6.94″ since Sep 1

This is almost equal to our deficit from just before our most recent rainfall.

Yes, we can dry out quickly and the state burn bans will remain in place.

THURSDAY NOVEMBER 14

COOL DAY: Increasing clouds with rain arrive in metro areas in the afternoon.

Low mornings

Afternoon height

RAIN WARNING

Storm forecast Thursday morning through Friday night

Radar Simulation:

NAM 3 Km 9 AM THU to 7 AM FRI

Snapshots

Thursday morning

The early arrival over the mountains can lead to a start as sleet in over 2,000 Ft in elevation.

Thursday afternoon

Rain will move to metro areas during the afternoon.

Thursday evening

Steady, moderate rain will last overnight.

Friday morning

The day may begin with moderate to heavy rain in southern Maryland and southeastern VA…but end elsewhere in our region. The day will remain partly sunny with changing clouds.

Potential for precipitation

Moderate to heavy rain will fall over the mountains. The low pressure track through Virginia will bring heavier rain to the south, with less north to central Pennsylvania.

TROPICAL VIEW

The National Hurricane Center has identified Invest 99L as the system expected to develop. There is an 80% chance that this will grow into a tropical storm over the next 48 hours. If so, the next name on the list is Sara.

Model forecast tracks

The general expectation is that this will turn the corner near Cancun and move across South Florida early next week. It is TOO EARLY to give details. We need a central, organized Create the plot to get a better handle on how this will behave.

Model Forecast Intensity

There is good indication that the environment supports growth to hurricane strength.

Forecast Animation: ECMWF Model

Next Tuesday, November 19 to Friday, November 22

I should point out that this is only one solution. I wanted to show how the track may interact with another system and may lead to more rain in the Mid-Atlantic late next week.

7 day weather forecast

After our precipitation, Friday will start to clear up and then lead us into a sunny and mild weekend.

Next week the track of ‘Sara’ may help bring us more rain later in the week.

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REPEAT MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I realize there are some spelling and grammar mistakes and occasional other mistakes. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer errors I may miss. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here you might have missed it: I’m dyslexic and found out during my sophomore year at Cornell University. That didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had come this far without knowing it and not to let it be a crutch going forward. It was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make matters worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasts. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.

There has been no editor to check my work while you write and to have it ready to air in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of web team which helps me maintain this page. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is free. It could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and maybe prove that what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF