NBA Cup Predictions: Which Teams Will Reach the Quarterfinals?

The second edition of the season tournament, known as the Emirates NBA Cup, tips off on Tuesday. All 30 teams will play four group stage games over the next several weeks for a chance to reach the knockout rounds and ultimately the championship game on December 17th at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Behind the efforts of LeBron James, the Los Angeles Lakers won the inaugural NBA Cup, but their first-round exit in the 2024 playoffs proved that getting hot to win a single-elimination tournament in December is very different from subsequent postseason success.

Conversely, last year’s runner-up Indiana Pacers used their unexpected NBA Cup success as a springboard for a long playoff run, reaching the Eastern Conference Finals before falling to the eventual champion Boston Celtics.

Let’s break down which teams have the best chance to follow in the footsteps of the Lakers and Pacers using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, which generates projected odds to advance as the group winner. We’ll also assess which teams are best positioned to potentially claim the wild-card spot in each conference with an eye toward Las Vegas.

Jump to a group:
East group A (CHA, BKN, NYK, ORL, PHI)
East group B (DET, IND, MIA, MIL, TOR)
Eastern Group C (ATL, BIM, CHI, CLE, WAS)
West Group A (HOU, LAC, MIN, POR, SAC)
West Group B (OKC, LAL, PHX, SA, UTAH)
West Group C (DAL, DEN, GS, NO, MEM)

East group A

The group’s favorite: Philadelphia 76ers (34.6%)

Competitors: New York Knicks (23.7%), Orlando Magic (19%)

Wondering: Brooklyn Nets (11.9%), Charlotte Hornets (10.8%)

Having a team that started 1-6 as favorites to win their division is a great example of how the NBA Cup can differ from the regular season. The 76ers will have former MVP Joel Embiid back from his long absence — first due to injury recovery, then a three-game suspension for shoving a reporter — just in time to debut in Tuesday’s Group A opener against the Knicks.

And because NBA Cup games are never the second night of back-to-back sets, Embiid should be available for all games even if All-Star guard Tyrese Maxey misses extended time with a hamstring strain.

The Magic have won consecutive games after losing five in a row without All-Star Paolo Banchero, whose oblique injury will surely sideline him for the duration of the group stage, but the winner of Philadelphia, who hosts New York on Tuesday, should have the inside to win Group A .

Still, this is a group that could prove wide open due to injuries. BPI simulations show all five teams (Nets and Hornets rounding out Group A) winning at least 10% of the time, easily the most competitive group from top to bottom.

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East group B

The group’s favorite: Miami Heat (38.4%)

Competitors: Milwaukee Bucks (26.9%), Indiana Pacers (20%)

Wondering: Detroit Pistons (8.3%), Toronto Raptors (6.3%)

Although not as competitive from top to bottom as Group A, the East’s Group B is the most open at the top. Only the Heat are currently projected to win 30% of the BPI simulations. It’s a testament to the slow start by the Bucks, who looked like the top team in the group entering the season before their early season games which has them set near the bottom of the east.

Milwaukee could get a boost with Khris Middleton potentially returning from ankle surgery during group stage. If Jimmy Butler can return soon from his ankle injury, Miami will remain the favorite in Group B and boast the best point differential of these teams so far this season.

Indiana is a long shot to repeat last year’s NBA Cup run after a .500 start to this season.

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East group C

Favorite: Boston Celtics (50.8%)

Competitors: Cleveland Cavaliers (40.7%)

Wondering: Chicago Bulls (4%), Atlanta Hawks (3.7%), Washington Wizards (0.8%)

ESPN’s Brian Windhorst has said that winning the NBA Cup is a good goal for the Cavaliers, the NBA’s last remaining undefeated team. There is only one big challenge for Cleveland: to be drawn with the Celtics in what is clearly the most top-heavy group. Worse yet, that game will be played in Boston next Tuesday, a repeat of last season’s Eastern Conference semifinals.

Although the Celtics are the comfortable BPI favorite, both top teams advance in about 70% of simulations due to the strong possibility of this group providing the East’s wild card.

For tiebreak purposes, the Cavaliers will want to run up as much as possible in their wins. Last year, teams didn’t really understand the incentive to maximize point differential before the end of the group stage, resulting in lopsided blowouts on the final night. This time, expect possible wild cards to run up from the start.

Cleveland opens with the Bulls at home and could provide the largest margin of any team hosting the rebuilding Wizards in the Finals.

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West group A

The group’s favourites: Minnesota Timberwolves (31.2%)

Competitors: Houston Rockets (26.4%), Sacramento Kings (20.9%), LA Clippers (15.4%)

Wondering: Portland Trail Blazers (5.2%)

Between their youth, depth and fast start, the Rockets seem like just the kind of team that could pull off a surprise in the NBA Cup.

Standing in their way are the Timberwolves (still finding their footing after acquiring Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo in the preseason), Clippers and Kings.

The challenge for the Rockets is that their two toughest group games will be played away from home. The same goes for the Clippers, although they remain undefeated so far on the road. Conversely, it benefits Sacramento, which hosts both of the other top contenders at the Golden 1 Center, including the Rockets in what could be a decisive final.

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West group B

The group’s favourites: Oklahoma City Thunder (43.2%)

Competitors: Phoenix Suns (26.4%), Los Angeles Lakers (20.1%)

Wondering: San Antonio Spurs (5.5%), Utah Jazz (4.8%)

Going into their game on Sunday against Golden State, the Thunder were projected to reach the quarterfinals of the regular season tournament in nearly 90% of simulations.

Those chances took a big dive after star center Chet Holmgren suffered a pelvic fracture in the game. He will be out for at least eight to 10 weeks, likely ruling him out for the duration of the tournament.

A few factors still favor the Thunder to win a group that includes the high-scoring Suns and the defending tournament champion Lakers. First, the Thunder host the Suns — who will be without Kevin Durant for at least two weeks because of a calf strain — on Friday in a key matchup in this group.

The group also has three of the five teams in the West with a negative point differential (Lakers, Spurs and Jazz) – meaning this group will most likely produce the conference’s wild card.

As long as the Durant-less Suns can keep things close in Oklahoma City, they have an excellent chance to advance even if they lose.

The Lakers’ hopes of defending their tournament title are complicated by playing in Phoenix, and it remains to be seen if league scoring leader Anthony Davis will be out this week after get an eye injury in Sunday’s win over Toronto.

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West group C

The group’s favourites: Golden State Warriors (33.6%)

Competitors: Denver Nuggets (26.1%), Dallas Mavericks (24.1%)

Wondering: Memphis Grizzlies (13.8%) New Orleans Pelicans (2.5%)

Three of the West’s top six teams in point differential are in this group, making it the NBA Cup’s toughest — and one that also has plenty of injured stars. Despite the weakened Pelicans, who see forward Zion Williamson and several other key contributors hampered by injuries, claiming a wild-card spot by virtue of the schedule could be a challenge for the second-place team.

Golden State’s fast start has placed the Warriors as the favorites. They also host two of the other top three teams in Group C, although they travel to Denver on the final game night.

The Nuggets also play two of their three toughest games at home, and there’s an outside chance they could get starting point guard Aaron Gordon back from a calf strain when they host Golden State in the Finals.

The schedule is tougher for both Dallas and the Memphis Grizzlies (who are without guard Ja Morant due to a hip injury), though the Mavericks have the ability to win anywhere. That includes perhaps the highlight of the NBA Cup bracket: Klay Thompson’s return to the Bay Area on Tuesday night.