2024 NFL Week 10 Best Bets: Take Commanders, Lions to Cover

Another NFL week is upon us, which means we have another chance to win some money with our bets.

Looking at the Week 10 board, there were three matchups that caught my eye. And in these games I couldn’t help but give a leg to the favorites.

One team in particular I couldn’t miss was Detroit.

But keep reading because I make a pretty strong case for why I’m backing the Commanders and Niners to win and cover.

(All times ET)

Sunday, Nov. 10

STEEL @ COMMANDER (1 p.m., CBS)

The Steelers will be a rare public underdog on the road. Everything lines up for the Steelers here.

May I interest you in some trends?

Mike Tomlin versus rookie quarterbacks is 25-6! He is a smart defensive coach. Mike Tomlin off a bye is 13-4. Give him an extra week to play plan? Say good night. Mike Tomlin as the underdog since Ben Roethlisberger retired? 20-9 against the spread (ATS).

You get the point.

You know what those numbers don’t take into account? Washington’s 2024 season.

The Commanders have been the league’s best story, an offensive machine that has played 36 quarters and incredibly scored in 34 of them. They are 11-for-11 on fourth down!

It will be the best offense the Steelers have seen since the opener when they faced gimpy Kirk Cousins. And how do you beat the amazing Pittsburgh pass rush led by TJ Watt? You have to have a scrambling quarterback. Lamar Jackson has given the Steelers fits with his ability to get out of the pocket and pick up chunks of yardage. In four games against the Steelers, he has recorded 45, 55, 65 and 70 yards rushing.

And since everyone likes trends — or loves to hate them — rookie QBs are 11-0 when favored this season. The market can’t seem to catch up with Commanders.

PICK: Commanders (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points

49ERS @ BOOKANS (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

Last year, San Francisco limped into the bye with three straight moves, and stars like Trent Williams, Brock Purdy and Deebo Samuel were all concussed or had missed some time (Purdy suffered a concussion against Minnesota).

They came off the bye and had to travel to Florida to face Jacksonville. The Jags had won five in a row and were 6-2. The healthy 49ers destroyed the Jags 34-3 and went on to rattle off seven straight wins.

This year the 49ers were riddled with injuries heading into the bye, have alternated wins and losses and now head to Florida.

With Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings and most importantly Christian McCaffrey back – combined with all of Tampa’s problems – how can you not love the 49ers here?

The line started at 6, then went down to 5, then back up to 6 and now it’s heading to 7. The Bucs are coming off an overtime loss Monday night where their defense was on the field for 83 plays against KC. will face the 49ers.

Not only is Tampa’s defense leaking oil, but the offense is a sore mess. They have been burned in the last three games by Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins ​​and Pat Mahomes with 12 touchdowns allowed and 0 interceptions.

This could be a 40-17 type of beating.

PICK: 49ers (-6.5) to win by more than 6.5 points

LIONS @ TEXANS (8:20 p.m., NBC/Peacock)

Early in the week I was put to shoot the home dog, with the division leader getting more than a field goal at home.

They got back Nico Collins, one of the best receivers in the league! And the offense doesn’t look the same without him. The Texans are 6-13 when he doesn’t play.

And then Collins didn’t practice all week until Friday, and it’s unclear if he’ll play and how much at the time of publication. Complicating matters, Will Anderson, the edge rusher, hasn’t practiced because of an ankle injury and isn’t a lock to play.

On the back end, the Texans defense has been burned, giving up 19 TD passes, tied for second most in the NFL (Baltimore is first but has played one more game). Houston’s red zone defense is fourth-worst in the NFL, giving up TDs 69% of the time.

So the Texans can’t be stopped. The offense is scattershot without Collins. Where is Houston’s edge?

There’s no way the Texans are overlooking the Lions — not even with a huge in-state rivalry game next week in Dallas — but it’s very hard for me to miss the Lions here the way this team is rolling.

In their last 55 games, the Lions are 40-15 ATS. In 2022, they were 12-5 ATS, second best in the NFL. Last season, they were an NFL-best 14-6 ATS; this season they are 7-1 ATS.

If I covered up their name and logo, you’d think it was the Chiefs, Ravens or 49ers.

That’s as chalky as it gets, but give me Detroit.

PICK: Lions (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.

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