NHC tracks Hurricane Rafael, disturbance. See Florida influences

On By Littum

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After a short run as category 3 overnight, Raphael weakened to a strong Category 2 hurricane this morning with sustained winds of 110 mph and a meandering path away from Florida and the rest of the United States through the Gulf of Mexico, where it is expected to continue weakening over the next few days, according to them latest update from the National Hurricane Center.

Meanwhile, a low pressure area near Puerto Rico is bringing heavy rain and thunderstorms to the area, but has a low chance of development over the next week.

Rafael drenched western Cuba and took out the entire island’s power grid before going in and amplifying. A mid-level ridge is pushing the storm west, further away from the Sunshine State and away from a non-tropical storm over the south central states that could have pulled it north into a Gulf Coast landfall, according to AccuWeather forecasters.

“As Rafael takes this west-southwest track, it will experience increasing wind shear (perturbative breezes), which will cause it to gradually lose wind intensity.” AccuWeather Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days.

Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.

➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Rafael

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The next named storm of the season will be Sara.

Here is the latest update from the NHC as of 9 a.m. CST Friday, November 8:

Hurricane Rafael: What you should know

Special note about the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the storm’s center. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

  • Location: 24.5N 88.8W, about 230 miles north-northeast of Progreso, Mexico, about 535 miles east of the mouth of the Rio Grande
  • Maximum Sustained Wind: 110 mph
  • Current Movement: West at 9 mph
  • Minimum central pressure: 961 MB

At 9 a.m. CST, the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 88.8 West. Rafael is moving west near 9 mph. A slower west-northwesterly movement is expected over the next day or so. After that, Rafael will likely meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph with higher gusts. A steady weakening is expected over the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 in).

Spaghetti models for Hurricane Rafael

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include a variety of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.

➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Rafael

Florida impacts from Hurricane Rafael

Potential impacts for Florida from the National Hurricane Center:

  • Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread over most of the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

National Hurricane Center Map: What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

Near the Greater Antilles: Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a low pressure area extending from the central Caribbean Sea northeast across Hispaniola and into the southwest Atlantic. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next few days as it moves westward near the Greater Antilles.

Regardless of the development, locally heavy rain is possible across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday.

  • Chance to spawn through 48 hours: low, 20 percent.
  • Formation chance through seven days: low, 20 percent.

What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

The shaded areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.

The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system can develop with yellow as low, orange medium and red high.

The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.

“If a system is close to land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait to issue an advisory, even if the system has not become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.

Who is likely to be affected?

Hurricane Rafael’s track is expected to do so spare the central Gulf region from flooding rains and damaging winds, according to AccuWeather forecasts.

➤ View of too much precipitation

AccuWeather meteorologists said the system in the southwest Atlantic is very weak but is dumping rain over the Leeward Islands and should move west into the weekend before turning away from Florida.

“If the shift in winds doesn’t occur, there could be a way for it to reach Florida,” AccuWeather said.

Forecasters urge all residents to continue to monitor the tropics and always be prepared.

Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida

When does hurricane season end?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

The Atlantic basin includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city

View of too much precipitation

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